【摘要】 本文目的在于探讨趋势面分析法应用于地方病地区分布的研究,对调查所得的发病率数据提供数学模型及趋势图。通过用多项式趋势面分析,经逐步回归进行选项的趋势面分析两个途径,结合吉林省克山病十三年度发病率的材料进行了处理分析,所得结果与实际情况基本相符。经分析比较以二次多项式方程对本资料最为适合。更多还原

【Abstract】 The purpose of this paper is to discuss the application of trend surface analysis to the distribution of Keshan Disease and provide the relevant mathematical models and trend maps.Two sets of computer programs are established:(1) polynomial trend surface analysis; (2) trend surface analysis in which stepwise regression is used to select the variables. These are used to process and analyze the incidence of Keshan Disease for thirteen years in Jilin province. The results are basically consistent with the actual situation.The analysis and comparison on linear, quadric and cubic trend surface that involve thirty-nine equations all together show that quadric polynomial is most suitable for the material. Twelve of thirteen quadric equations are of significance of regression. They can be used to do further caculatious.Trend surface analysis method is a good way for studing disease distribution relevant with region,enviroment, polution of air or water, et. People can use obtained trend maps which reflect directly variations of disease in different areas during different periods to find out reasons of which disease occurs and to make plans of preventing and curing a disease.更多还原