【摘要】 本文用地气耦合非定常距平模式对1988年1—12月北半球100hPa、500hPa、海平面气压和地面温度的月距平场进行了为期一年的逐月30天预报准业务试验。结果表明,模式对月距平场距平符号的趋势预报以100hPa 效果最好,海平面气压较差;模式对500hPa、地面温度的月距平场预报优于持续性预报,表明该模式对距平场形势有一定的预报能力。试验结果还表明,模式预报在中低纬优于中高纬;但对不同层次、不同月份的预报效果不够稳定,而且对低值系统预报能力较差。模式的一个突出问题是预报场空间过份平滑,尚须作进一步试验、改进。更多还原

【Abstract】 A quasi—operational experiment for 30—day forecast has been made for monthly anoma-lies of 100hPa,500hPa,SLP and SLT during January through December of 1988 from a non-steady atmosphere—earth surface coupled anomaly model.The results show that the forecast oftendency of 100hPa monthly anomaly is the best and that of SLP is not too good,the model fore-casts for both 500hPa and surface temperature monthly anomalies are better than persistenceforecasts.It means that this model can be used to forecast anomaly field in large scale.The resultsalso show that it is better in the low and mid—latitude regions than in the mid—high latitude.But the forecast effects are not quite the same for the different levels and months and the fore-casts for low pressure systems are not very satisfactory.The model has a defect in the spatial res-olution,which is too smooth.So,it needs more experiments and improvements.更多还原