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从铁路产量弹性看“八五”运输形势

Evaluating the Railway Industry Deve Iopment during the Eighth-Year Plan Period in the Light of the Railway Output Fluctuation

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【作者】 方举;

【Author】 Fang Ju, Northern Jiaotong University

【机构】 北方交通大学;

【摘要】 本文对铁路客货运量弹性系数的计算方法进行了探讨。建议以工农业总产值和国民收入作为计算基础;对建国以来各个时期客货运量的弹性系数进行了计算和分析,并对铁路运量做了预测;指出“八五”期间我国铁路所面临的严峻形势。

【Abstract】 This paper makes an approach to the calculation method of the fluctuation coefficiency of railway output. It suggests that the industrial and agricultural production output and the national income be taken as the basis of calculation; calculates and analyses the fluctuation coefficiency of passenaer/freight traffic volume of each period since the founding of the People’s Republic of China; makes traffic projection on railway volume; and evaluates the severe status faced by Chinese Railway.

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