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广东省自然生态环境综合效应定量评价初探

Preliminary Studies on the Quantitative Evaluation for the Integrated Effects of the Natural Ecological Environment in Guangdong Province

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【作者】 李国琛;

【Author】 Li Guochen Guangzhou Institute of Geography

【机构】 广州地理研究所;

【摘要】 本文根据矛盾对立统一原理,抓住主要矛盾,采用“生态位”破坏因子和建设因子构造数学模型对广东省自然生态环境进行定量评价;同时运用模糊聚类分析法对自然生态环境进行分类,并对评价模型和评价结果进行合理性检验。最后,作者应用本数学模型对广东省自然生态环境综合效应进行预测和预评价;预计,到2000年广东省自然生态环境综合效应较好。也就是说,自然生态环境破坏较轻,而绿化较好,广东省自然生态将向良性循环方面转化。

【Abstract】 According to the law of unity of opposites and the idea of grasping the principal contradiction, the natural ecological environment in Guangdong Province is quantitatively evaluated by means of a mathematical model formulated on the basis of both destructive and contructive factors of“Niche”. Secondly, the natural ecological environment is classified by fuzzy set cluster analysis while the rationality of the model and the evaluation results are tested. Finally, by means of the same model, the integrated effects of the natural ecological environment of Guangdong Province are predicled and pre-evaluated. It is estimated that a better integrated effect of natural ecological environment in Guangdong Province, That is to say, It will be lightish that natural ecological environment is destroied and a larger forest coverage will be reatized, Hence, A better circulation of the natural ecosystem will may be expected in Guangdong province by 2000 A, D.

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