【摘要】 利用文献[4],本文求出了考虑海气耦合时零维模式的平衡态,讨论了它们的稳定性和现代气候的敏感性问题。 结果表明:气候系统存在三个平衡态,两个稳定态分别表示冰期和间冰期气候;当考虑海气作用时,现代气候条件下的敏感性比不考虑海气作用时小,外参数变化为1％,温度平均变化为1°K左右。 在此基础上,就随机模式的反馈系数提出了不同的看法,对随机分析作了简略探讨,并用实际资料进行了检验。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, on the basis of literature [4], the equilibrium solutions were derived from a zero-dimensional model in which the air-sea interaction was considered. Meanwhile, the stability and sensitivity of the model were discussed.The results indicated that there were three equilibrium solutions in the climatic system, two of them were stable and expressed the climate for glacial and interglacial periods. Temperature change was less sensitive in the model.than in other models without considering air-sea interaction. Averagely, when outer parameter varied by 1 %, temperatures would change over a range of about 1K.In addition, the paper showed a different viewpoint about feedback coefficient of stochastic model and demonstrated random analysis. At last, using observational data, we made a test of the stochastic model’s suitability.更多还原