【摘要】 本文对冬小麦群体分蘖动态进行了模拟,并分析了模型参数的生物学意义。然后用回归方法确定了模型参数与措施因子综合的定量关系,分析了措施因子对参数值的作用。还用13种函数方程对基本苗数、冬前茎数、最高茎数和穗数之间的相互关系进行了系统分析和模拟研究。初步结果为:冬前茎数随积温发展变化的规律可用y=k/(1+me^-ax)描述;春季茎数随积温变化规律可用y=a₀+a₁x+a₂x²来描述;提出利用参数与措施的定量关系以确定某种措施条件下的模型参数值,从而建立相应模型;提出利用分蘖消长、分蘖成穗的动态变化曲线（基本苗数,冬前茎数、最高茎数与穗数间的关系）,确定指标穗数要求下基本苗数、冬前茎数的合理数量——“目标分段控制”,以此做为阶段控制指标之一。更多还原

【Abstract】 Field experiment was carried out during 1986-1988.Using data obtained from the experiment, we simulated the dynamic development of the number of stems among winter wheat population and defined the biological meaning of the model’s parameters .The quantitative relationship between model’s parameters and artificial treatments was founded.and the effect of the treatments on the parameters was analysed. Then we used 13 kinds of popular nonlinear models to simulate the quantitative relationship of the number of harvested ears with the number of seeding ( NS ) ,the number of stems before winter ( NSW ) and the peak number of stem ( PNS ) .The prelimineary result is showed as follow;1 ) The logistic model y = k/ ( 1 +me-x ) can be used to simulate the developing process of NSW following accumulated temperature above 0 -C2 ) The function of the number of spring stems to accumulated temperature above 0 -C can be simulated by the model y = a 0+a1x + a2x2 ,3 ) For the purpose of prediction and control.the value of parameters in the models can be determined on the basis of the quatitati?e relations between the parameters and treatments .Then the particular model corresponding to the treatments offered can be determined so prediction can be made and the treatment can be adjusted.4 ) The appropriate number range of NS, NSW,PNS can be determined and used as a reference in agricultural production according to the relationship between NS, NSW, PNS with the number of harvested ears, and the need of yield.更多还原