【摘要】 本文利用昌化气象站27年的气象资料和临安县相应年份的山核桃产量资料,建立了该县山核桃年总产量的数学模拟模式。结果有80%的年份,模拟产量与实际产量的相对误差不超±20%,60%的年份相对误差不超过±10%;利用该模式可在山核桃成熟前4个月作出该县山核桃年总产量的预报;通过分析认为,产量形成前一年12月至当年2月的寒冷指标,及萌芽、开花、授粉期的热量和雨水条件对山核桃产量的形成起重要作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 A mathematical simulation model of the annual output of Carya cathayensis in Linan County is establishecl in this paper. The results Showed that in 60 percent of the simulated years, the relative errors between the simutateel output and the actual output are no more than ±10 percent. By using this model we can foresce the Carya cathayensis annual output of this county, four months before the actual output comes out. Through thee analysis it is acknowledged that the bitterly cold target from December of the previous year the output forms to Feb. of the year the output forms, and the heat and rain conditions during the serminating, blooming and pollinating stages play an important role in the formation of the output of the product.更多还原