【摘要】 本文选取了判别每年可能发生的地震的最大震级范围的16项指标,对大华北地区1960年至1986年M₁≥4.0级的地震（余震除外）序列进行了处理,给出了判别三种震级范围即M_?≤6.0、6.0<M₃<7.0、M_?≥7.0的模糊关系方程。对此方程通过7个震例进行了预报检验,结果均与实际符合较好。本文还对1987年大华北地区可能发生的地震的最大震级范围进行了估计,结果为M_?≤6.0。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, 16 items of 4 factors used in distinguishing magnitude interval related to maximum event that might happen every year are chosen, and the earthquake sequences of Ms≥4.0 （in exception of aftershock） occurred in North China from 1960 to 1986 are dealt with. Fuzzy relation equation of magnitude decision containing 3 magnitude intervals, M₅≤6.0, 6.0<M,<7.0 and M_?≥7.0 are given. Seven event examples are used to inspect the prediction result of this equation. The result indicates that all of them passed through prediction inspection. This paper also made a estimate that maximum event of which magnitude would be M_?≤6.0 might occur in North China in 1987.更多还原