【摘要】 本文叙述了用天气-统计学方法制作中长期亚洲范围内大气环流型预报的一种客观方案。本方案是以统计学方法划分自然天气季节和对每个自然天气季节内的候平均环流型进行分类为基础的,着重点在于强调以认识大气中的物理过程为基础来选择预报因子。本文的结果指出,用经验方法制作长期天气预报是可行的。更多还原

【Abstract】 An objective scheme for forecasting the atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia at medium to long range by the synoptic-statistical method is deseribed . The scheme is based on the division of Natural Synoptic Season and classification of the circulation patterns for each NSS by statistical methods. The emphasis for this scheme is laid on the selection of predictor variables on the basis of understanding the physical processes in the atmosphere. It is painted that long range forecast by empirical methods is available.更多还原