【摘要】 本文以Sellers(1969)模式为基础,加入水汽——温室效应的正反馈机制,计算地球上纬向年平均温度的稳定分布和进行一系列的敏感性试验。与Sellers的计算结果相比较后发现,加入水汽温室效应以后,全球平均温度提高了2.1℃。此外还分别考虑了太阳常数,反照率、大气减弱系数以及人类活动对气候的影响。结果指出:如果太阳辐射减少了1％,则相应的各纬圈年平均温度会减少1～2℃。当太阳常数减少到3％时才会触发极冰——反射率——温度的正反馈机制,而导致新的冰川期的形成,同时还发现加入水汽——温室效应正反馈机制以后,会使极冰——反射率——温室的正反馈机制有所收敛,并且可预测人类活动的影响能导致全球气候变暖。更多还原

【Abstract】 A relative simple numerical of the energy balance of the ea rth-atmosphere is set up and aoplied, which is based on the Sellcrs’s model(1969)considered a poait-ive feedback of H2O-greenhouse. This is expressed basically as a function of the solar constant, the planetary albedo, the transparency of the atmosphere of infrared radiation, and the turbulent exchange coefficiences for atmosphere and the oceans.Having considered a positive feedback of H20-greenhouse,the major conclusions of the analysis are that the mean globe temprature will increase by 2.1℃ comparing with the Sellers’s, that a decrease of the solar constant by 1% would decrease annual average globe tempratures by 1-2℃, that a decrease of the solar constant by 3% might be sufficient to initiate anther ice age, that the sensitivity of positive feedback of ice-albedo would be decreased; and that man’s increasing industrial activities may eventually lead to a much warmer global climate than today.更多还原