【摘要】 社会经济系统的特点在于非线性、时变性和非平稳性,以致用一般方法所作的预测其结果不能令人满意。本文提出一种协调预测法,它基于采样控制和差分跟踪的原理,通过非线性函数的泰勒级数展开近似式,实现动态协调。此法对非线性动态预测精度较高,算法简单,尤其适用于中、短期预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Social and economic system are characterized by non-linearity, timevariation and nonstationarity, so that its results of forecasting with general methods are not satisfactory. Therefore, the author suggests a coordination forecast method based on sampled-data control and the principle of difference follow-up, in which the dynamic coordination is implemented in terms of the approximation of Taylor expansion for non-linear function. The calculated results of examples show that the method is of high accuracy and simple, and is especially suitable for middle and short term forecast.更多还原