【摘要】 本文通过总结震例经验,以地电分析预报人员的分析思路为基础,将概率统计、模糊识别、专家系统中的不精确推理基本原则相结合,给出了地电阻率震兆异常可信度,用它表示“某道测线出现了地电阻率异常后将会发生中强以上地震”这一结论的可信程度。这一信度是地电阻率单个异常可靠程度的一个综合定量化标准,也可将其作为地震预报专家系统综合预报推理的最基本定量参数。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the thinking of geoelectric analyzers and predictors, this paper presents the de-gree of reliability concerning seismic precursory anomaly of earthresistivity by combining withprobability statistics, fuzzy identification, the basic principle of inaccurate guess in a specialistsystem through summing up experiences of seism? cases. It can be used to express the relia-bility degree of such a conclusion that there will occur moderately strong or larger earthquakesafter the appearance of a geoelectric anomaly observed in one line. This is a synthetic quan-tization standard of the reliability of a single earthresistivity anomaly, and it can also beused as the most fundamental quantitative parameter in a synthetic guess of a specialist systemfor earthquake prediction.更多还原