【摘要】 本文按照克依利斯博罗克和诺波夫等关于强震前兆的三种图象—即余震爆发图象b、震群图象S以及加权和图象∑的定义,以康定—炉霍地震带为例,检验了这三种图象的存在及其预报效果。结果表明,1967—1982年,该带5次M_s≥6.0级的强震前,可能生成一种、两种甚至全部三种图象。这三种图象的预报效果都是相当令人满意的,尤其是图象∑的预报效果更佳。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, according to three kinds of seismic patterns as precursory of strong earthquakes, i. e. aftershock burst pattern b, earthquake swarm pattern s and weight sum pattern ∑, put forward by Keilis-borok and Knopoff et al. , taking Kangding-Luhuo seismic zone as a example, the existence and prediction effect of three kinds of seismic patterns are tested. The results show that, during 1967—1982, one, two and all of three kinds of seismic patterns can be produced in the seismic zone before 5 strong earthquakes (M≥6.0). The prediction effect of three kinds of patterns are rather satisfactory. Particularly, the prediction effect of the weight sum pattern ∑ is better. When the value of the pattern ∑ exceeds certain threshold value, there always were earthquakes (M≥0.6) to occur afterwards. Simultaneous appearance of two or three kinds of patterns can eliminate false forecast and improve the accuracy of earthquake prediction.更多还原