【摘要】 本文以陕西秦巴山区为试验基地,根据区域水热条件和商品经济发展现状,选择生漆、核桃、板栗、茶叶和桔柑等商品项目,分别依据理想生产条件,确定具有明显限制意义的因子参加优选试验.由于商品基地的建设要受到自然因素集、社会技术因素集和经济因素集的限制,因此,整个优选过程包括四部分:即确定参加优选试验的候选基地,主要依据目前人类无法大规模改变的主要限制性自然因素;自然因素集分析,将待选基地与商品理想基地逐一比较,以两系统的中心距离代表其相似性,按相似程度评分;社会技术因素集分析,着重考虑商品生产的面积、劳力、产量、技术条件和历史经验,综合评分;经济因素计算分析,按1984—1986年资料计算商品生产的经济收益,以纯收益高低评分;然后综合四个优选过程,用期望值代表总评价优选结果,经过这一流程优选的商品生产基地再进行未来生态系统变化的预测,包括自然生态系统、社会生态系统和经济生态系统的变化预测.为发展秦巴山区商品生产提供一定理论依据.更多还原

【Abstract】 Qinling-Bashan Mountains of Shaanxi province were taken as commodity produc- tion bases for test.According to the combination of heat and water and the condi- tions oF commodity production in this area,raw lacquer,walnut,Chinese chestnut, tea,oranges,tangerines and their obviously restrictive factors compared with their ideal conditions were chosen as test materials. As the development of the commodity production base has to be limited by it’s natural system,social-technical system and econimic system,the whole test process includes the following four steps:1.determination of candidate bases of commodity production;2.analysis of natnral systm;3.analysis of social-technical system;4. analysis of economic system through calculation.And then,all of the four steps were considered synthetically to determine the hierachical serios of the candidate bases of commodity prodiction.Eventually,the evolutien of ecological system,bgth in social-economic system,of every commodity production base was predicted in this paper.更多还原