【摘要】 本文利用武汉80年的年平均气温资料,在对气温时间序列进行谱分析的基础上,利用灰色系统中的二阶动态预测模型——GM(2,1),对武汉气温未来的变化趋势进行了分析。得出武汉仍将处于偏冷期,预计90年代初开始转为回升,下世纪第10年后出现明显偏暖。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, a grey model--GM (2, 1) is described. Based on the annualmean temperature data of 1980 in Wuhan City, the model is used to forecast the temperature tendency in the city. The result shows that the temperature would be still below the mean value in the near future and appear to turn higher at the beginning of 1990s. When the second decado of the next century is coming, Wuhan City wuold be warmer than now.更多还原