【摘要】 本文将文献〔1〕给出的发电单元强迫停运率的贝叶斯估计法发展为加权递推方法,从而有能力处理具有时变风险函数特性的单元可靠性参数估计问题,且便于计算机序贯处理。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper the Basic Bayesian Estimation Methood(BBEM) is developed into the Recursive Weighting Bayesian Estimation Method(RWB EM), By the introduction of weighting factors, RWEM avoids the difficulties in dividing the data into prior and sampling ones, and at the same time keeps all the favorate features of BBEM, Since RWBEM forgets the old data gradually and automatically, it can be employed to process the generation unit outage data with time-varying parameter for the units in the burn-in and wear-out periods.更多还原