【摘要】 本文应用灰色系统理论的GM（1,1）建模方法,对丰城县26年的虫情历史资料,应用电子计算机组建了该地区三化螟发生趋势的预测模型: 模型Ⅰ x（t+1）=71.2131e^0.1136t-68.2131 模型Ⅱ x（t+1）=58.2206e^0.1254t-55.2206 经检验,两模型合格,并用此模型对1985—2000年丰城地区三化螟危害比较严重的年份进行预测,其结果将有助于该地区的螟害防治。更多还原

【Abstract】 Adopting GM(1, 1) of gray system theory to establish the forecast model of occuring tendency of Typoryza incertulas in Fencheng county by computer according to the historical datas of this insect in past 26 years, the following model is used.Model Ⅰ. x(t + l) =71.2131e0.1136t-68.2131 Model Ⅱ. x( t + 1 ) =58.2206e0.1254t-55.2206Where x(t + l) is predicted value of occuring tendency, t is the year, e is 2.17128. It has been tested statistically that these models are qualified. By using these models the years which would be more harmful due to increasing activities of Tryoryza incertulas in Fengcheng county from 1985-2000 have been predicted. The result may be a help to diminish the damage by Tryoryza incertulas.更多还原