【摘要】 以湖南省历年油茶及其它油料作物产量的统计数据为依据,综合运用灰色系统理论和方法,对湖南省油茶生产的现状进行了关联分析,并建立了具有残差周期的GM(1,1)预测模型组以及其它4种主要油料作物单产中长期预测模型。预测表明:在无较大干预措施的前提下,湖南省油茶生产的现状将不会有根本性改变,到2000年,其总产量将不会超过0.75亿kg;其它4种油料作物的单产,均有不同程度的提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of many years’ statistical data of the Production of oil-tea camellia and other oil Plants in Hunan and in combination with gray-system iheon’ and its method, correlative analyses are made of the Present Production of Hunan tea-oil Plantations. Their residual cycle GM (1,1) Prediction models and the long-term single-harvest Prediction models of four major oil Plants are established. Results show that, without great interference and disturbance, there are no radical changes in the current Productivity of tea-oil Plantations in Hunan. By the year 2000, the total yield of tea-oil Plantations will not exceed 75 million kg.However, the single-harvest yields of the four oil Plants will increase to a certain degree.更多还原