【摘要】 本文应用单站多阶月自回归模型与空间分解模型相结合的方法,建立了红水河梯级电站的多站月径流模型.在此基础上,本文还应用动态规划法,以梯级电站的总保证出力为目标函数,计算了各梯级电站的最优死水位,並以实测系列对?这个随机模型所确定的水利参数进行了统计检验;並计算了这些参数的抽样误差.更多还原

【Abstract】 A multistage monthly runoff model is established based on the combination of the single autoregressive monthly model with the special decomposition model. Using the dynamic programming for the present model choosing the total firm capacity as the objective function, the optimization of the minimum pool level of the cascade hydropower station on Hongshui River is evaluated. The distribution of sampling errors are estimated and verified with observed data series.更多还原