【摘要】 <正> 前言 1986年11月7日至1987年3月11日,在山西省运城地区共发生地震850次。其中4.0—4.7级(M_L)地震3次,3.0—3.9级地震12次。释放的总应变能为2.36×16~6焦耳,相当于M_s5.3地震的能量释放。这次震群的主震为11月21日的4.7级地震。震中烈度V度强。有感范围达11个县市350万人口。有八千多间房屋遭到不同程度的更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the seismic sequence of the Yuncheng swarm occurring before November 18 1986, the authors proposed that there would probably occur earthquakes with ML∈e(4.5, 4.8) and the maximum magnitude not greater than 5.1 within Shanxi Province in two months since November 18 at the consultant meeting of the beismological Bureau of Shanxi Province on 25 November, using the fuzzy relation equation. In fact, no greater earthquakes occurred in Shanxi Province in the two months since the earthquake with M = 4.7 occurring on November 21. This confirmed that our estimate is fundamentally correct.更多还原