【摘要】 根据地极坐标主要由三个分量构成的原理，本文提出了一种利用短期资料外推地极坐标的方法。在比较了不同长度资料所得结果后，选定了一种合适的资料长度，既削弱了因资料过短偶然误差的过份影响，又避免了用六年资料引起的结果平均化趋向。半年和一年的预测度分别达86％和84％。与其他方法相比，本方法的特点是选用资料长度灵活可变，计算简便，并具有进一步改进的潜力。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper proposes a procedure of extrapolating polar corodinates with data overshort period of time based on the fact that the poiar coordinates consist of three compo-nents. i e. the secular. chancllerian and annual ones. After comparising the resuits ob-tained with various data periods. an appropriate data Period has been chosen with theintention of reducing the extraordinary effect of random errors due to too much shortdata period used as xell as avoiding the average trend in the results due to six yeardata period. The predictabilities corresponding to extrapolation lengths of 1/2 year and1 year are 86% and 84% respectively. The superiority of this procedurc over others isthe flexibility in data period and the simplification in computation. Moreover. the potentialfor further improvement remains.更多还原