【摘要】 <正> 流行性脑脊髓膜炎(简称流脑)系脑膜炎双球菌所致急性呼吸道传染病,发病有明显的季节性。在流行前期根据流行趋势作好预测预报,采取积极有效措施,对控制和降低流脑发病率有重要作用。本文采用多因素分析法对山西省阳城县1973～1982年十年的流脑发病更多还原

【Abstract】 There is clear seasonal for epidemic encephalitiscome on.Before period of prevalence to have been madea good forecast and calculation are important affect forcontroling and reducting incedence of epidemic enceph-alitis.This paper is on the basis of data of epidemic en-cephalitis in Shanxi province Yangcheng county andrelated meteorological data for ten years,which are sied-ved and calculated by the analysis method of stepwiseregression and stepwise discriminant on the PC-1500computer as a result the regression equation of annualepidemic encephalitis’s incedence in this place,the pop-ulation regression plane,the 95% confidence limits ofa year forecast value and the discraminant function ofprevalence level have been given.The significance test,retrospective and prospectiveinspection had been made for reliability of the regress.ion effect and the discriminant function,be consideredthat these functions have a certain power of forecastand discrimination(?)更多还原