【摘要】 本文用数理统计方法对新疆落叶松毛虫与气候因子的关系作了些研究,结果表明,落叶松毛虫暴发危害与降水量、最大积雪深度成负相关,而与气温、日照、地面温度,≥10℃的积温等成正相关,从而得到落叶松毛虫暴发危害的预报方程,试验预报结果,其准确率达93％。根据研究,未来15年左右的气候为冷湿年型向冷干年型过渡,这对落叶松毛虫的暴发极为不利。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the relationship between the Dendrolimus superans of Xinjiang and the climate factors were studied by means of mathemetic statistics. The result shows that there is a negative correlation between the outbreak of the Dendrolimus superans and the precipitation, maximum snow cover depth, but there is a positive correlation between outbreak of the Dendrolimus superans and air temperature, sunshine, surface temperature, the active accumulated temperature≥10℃. The forecast equations of outbreak of the Dendrolimus superans were found out. The accuracy rate of experimental forecast has reached 93%. According to the studying, the climate of the coming 15 years wil transfer from a cold moisture year type to a cold drought year type. This is adverse to the outbreak of Dendrolimus superans.更多还原