【摘要】 本文利用滤波、谱分析等方法分析与阐述了我国东海沿岸台风增水的基本特征。指出了它们与天文潮之间非线性耦合效应的普遍性与显著性。同时,本文还客观定量地寻求了台风暴雨导致的洪水在台风增水过程中的影响。在此基础上,应用筛选技术并借鉴Pore模式的构思,给出了吴淞、金山、乍浦、宁波、坎门、龙湾、温州和马尾这8个港口依据地面天气图实况,两种方案,时效为6、9、12小时的一种预报模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 Typhoon surge characteristics of the East China Sea coast are analysed using filtering and spectrum analysing methods, which indicates that the nonlinear coincidence effects between typhoon surge and astronomical tide are not only universal but also serious. The influence of the typhoon rain gush floods on surges are also discussed quantitavely. Then statistical method of the successive screening is used and the "Pore Model" is used for refference to build up quantitatively the connection between the typhoon pressure feild distribution on the surface and the surges, for the operational forecasting of typhoon surge along the East China Sea coast. Finally the forecasting equations based on the surface weather charts are given.更多还原