【摘要】 本文对韩志刚提出的“多层递阶预报方法”作了改进,其中涉及松驰因子的选取,初值确定,非平稳序列的处理,参数建模等方面,还给出了预报的置信区间。改进后的方法经过验证和在上海地区用电量分季度预报中的应用证明优于原方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the“Hierarchical Prediction Technique”suggested by Z.G.Han ismodified and improved.All aspects,such as selection of stack factors determination ofinitial valuable,processing of nonstationary series,and parameter modeling etc,areconsidered.Also,the confidence regions are given.The modified technique has beentested and used for the seasonly forecasting of the electricity expense of the City ofShanghai and better results than Han’s technique were shown.更多还原