【摘要】 本文分析了太阳活动世纪周期(83±30年)的平均特征,发现: 1.世纪周期黑子相对数峰值RD村可作为世纪周期总体特征的代表。 2.世纪周期上升时间△T_R可能与世纪周期的成因密切关联。本文作出了第22和23太阳周特征值预报,并标出了其最可能的变动范围。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper has briefly reviewed some of the recent typical results about the predicted characteristic values of solar cycles 22 and 23. Then the average features of secular cycles of solar activity are statistically analysed and the following points are revealed: 1. The peak values R_DM of relative sunsport numbers in secular cycles have linear correlations with other characteristic values at confidence levels higher than 95% (the falling values △R_DF have also the same) ; especially with the rising values △R_DR and falling values △R_DF, the corresponding confidence levels of correlation are higher than 99%; and with the rising times △T_R, the confidence level is even higher than that. It appears that R_DM can stand for the general feature of a secular cycle. 2. The rising times △T_R of secular cycles have a linear correlation with the peak values R_DM, and the confidence level is higher than 99.9%; with the rising values △R_DR, that is even higher. Maybe, △T_R is closely related to the cause of formation of secular cycles. In addition, the curves in Fig. 1 of this paper, separately for odd and even cycles, show the peak values of solar cycles and their evolutions; moreover the evolutionary tendency of the curves for the future are determined according to the average features of secular cycles; then the predicted characteristic values of solar cycles 22 and 23 are worked out.更多还原