【摘要】 本文用时间序列分析法建立了黑龙江省流脑预测模型。实际结果表明:预测结果稳定可靠,具有较高的精度。在建模过程中,本文采用了按月加权、渐消记忆及数据减月均值等技术,提高了预测精度,对其他场合下时间序列分析的应用也有一定参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using time series analysis methods,in this paper the prediction model of the epidemic encephalomyelitis in Heilongjiang Province were given.It is shown by prac-tical prediction that the predictions were stable and had higher precision.Some techniques such as weights in month,decaying memory and subtractingmonth averages from the data were taken to build the model.It was useful to risingthe prediction precision.These techniques might be helpful to other applications ofthe time series analysis method.更多还原