【摘要】 <正>南海是台风活动最频繁的地区之一,据(1949—1969)21年的资料统计,台风有36％生于南海,63％来自西太平洋。由于南海生成的台风具有生命期短、路径复杂、离大陆较近等特点,给预报、预防工作带来较大的困难。所以深入研究南海热带气旋的发生、发展,是提高热带气旋预报、服务时效和质量的一个关键问题。 国内较早研究台风生成问题的有李宪之,提出台风生成的综合学说;陈秋士从热成风适应理论出发,研究惯性不稳定与台风生成的关系,提出了二个台风形成判据条件;韦有暹、王荫桐等人根据热力学稳定度与冷空气激发作用这两个因子拟合成一组判别式;福建省气象局从天气学角度分析,定出发展与不发展的预报判别条件。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the present study, some factors were carefully chosen with doubles-tage sieve technique, i.e. experimental selection and statistical screening, by using the formulation of Fisher Criterion, and then making up a number of discriminant equations. After analytical screening, an effective couple of equations was selected to construct a curve plot, in which one equation ’ s criterion function was drawn against another’s on a two-dimension coordinate system. Thus, the development of a tropical depression may be forecasted basing on this analysed plot.The statistical sample involves 103 tropical cyclone events recorded within the area 110°-120°, 10°-23° over the South China Sea during July through Sept, over a period of ten years(1970-79). The factors were selected from the daily surface, 850 mb, 700 mb and 500 mb maps.Having been tested by 12 independent cyclone events in 1980-82, the accuracy of prediction is estimated to be over 80%,更多还原