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深水风浪预报模式的比较

COMPARISON OF DEEPWATER WIND-WAVE PREDICTION MODELS

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【作者】 汪炳祥; 张就兹; 武桂秋;

【Author】 Wang Bingxiang Zhang Jiuzi(Department of Physical Oceanology and Marine Meteorology)Wu Guiqiu(First Institute of Oceanography ,NBO)

【机构】 物理海洋学与海洋气象学系; 国家海洋局第一研究所;

【摘要】 <正> 海浪的波高与周期是海洋工程的选址及其结构物的设计的两个重要参数。获取指定海域的这两个波要素的途径大致可分为二:一是若已有海浪的观测资料,则可依谱或非谱的方法;一是如果没有资料,则借助于邻近海区的海浪资料,应用海浪的折射-绕射理论推算之,或从历史天气圈定出风要素后,依海浪的预报方法后报之。我们将沿用第二类中的第二种方法来估算黄海的台风浪的要素。

【Abstract】 Presently, there are about thirty-six models used in deepwater wind-wave forecasting by incomplete statistics. To select from among these models twelve that are more important and currently employed are confirmed by field observations, and are compared with each other. The calculations based on the twelve have been compared with wave data proffered by . M. (1958) and Bao Qiangsheng et al (1983); so far as the cases examined are concerned, the accuracy of the results given by wang’ s model are superior to those of the other eleven models. In order to investigate typhoon wave sat station ’Xiaomaidoa’ at 1800 hours 30 August 1939, the above approaches to wave prediction are used to hindcast again; the wave height on a basis of Wang’s model is found to be more consistent with a 50-year return period wave at the wave station than those found for the existing models. According to the prediction technique of hurricane waves the wave height and period of the most probable first highest wave within the area of typhoon are estimated at about 39 metres and 24 seconds respectively.

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