【摘要】 <正> 前言近年来国内外的预报实践证明:模式输出统计预报方法是制作降水客观预报的一种有效方法.根据资料统计可以看出:青岛地区雨季大部分开始于6月下旬,所以本材料利用1982-1983年6月15日至8月31日的日本传真图数值预报资料来建立"0"、"1"权重回归晴雨"MOS"预报方程,然后根据该方程的预报因子为基础,作青岛市区10mm以上的降水预报.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the data of the Japanese facsimile maps during Jun. 15th-Aug. 31th in 1982-1983, the "MOS" method was employed to establish the objective forecasting equation for precipitation whose amount is over 10mm during rainy season in Qingdao area. Three factors （Y₁, Y₂, Y₃） were selected from the folloing materials: the 24 hour forecasting map for the height and vorticity over 500mb, the 24 hour forecasting map for the vertical speed over 700mb, the 24 hour and 36 hour forecasting map for the precipitation on ground and the 24 hour forecasting synoptic map on ground. The obtained forecasting equation is tested showing fairly agreement. It is noticed that this method needs to be improved in the future.更多还原