【摘要】 目前时间序列分析在工业及水文、气象、地球物理等自然科学领域中得到了迅速发展。本文用非线性门限自回归及最大熵谱分析方法分析了我国年最大震级和全球年地震能量释放序列。最大熵谱分析具有分辨率高、周期偏移小的突出优点。对1897年至1983年的我国最大震级和全球年地震能量序列进行了最大熵谱分析,计算结果表明,我国年最大震级的周期为3.9年,全球年地震能量的显著周期为7.7年、4.4年、2.9年、及2.3年。对上述序列进行了门限自回归分析,并对我国分区年最大震级序列进行了门限自回归分析。在门限延迟值d=4,8,10时相应的AIC值为谷值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Time series analysis is recently applied into industry as well as various categories of natural sciences such as hydrology, meteorology, geophysics, etc. Using the non-linear threshold autorcgressive and the maximum entropy analysis methods, this paper studies the series of the annual maximum earthquake magnitude of China and the annual release of seismic energy across the world. The maximum entropy analysis method is advantageous for its high resolutions and small periodic deviations. Such maximum entropy analysis is made on the annual earthquake magnitude of China from 1897 up to 1983 and the global annual seismic energy series, the result thus obtained shows the greatest earthquake magnitude in China tends to have a period of 3.9 yrs, whereas the obvious period of annual seismic energy release around the world is likely 4.4, 2.9 and 2.3 yrs respectively. After that, the threshold autoregressivc analysis is carried out on the afore-mentioned series as well as on the yearly regional greatest magnitude of earthquakes occurred in China. Result of the analysis shows the AIC values corresponding to the threshold delay of d= 4 , 8 and 10 can be taken as the valley values.更多还原