【摘要】 本文研究了北京及其邻近地区的地质,地貌,地球物理等特征并对有关特征进行了模式识别。结果表明本区易发生地震的地点主要与主活动断裂及新生代断陷盆地有关,且活动断裂数目愈多,判定为强震可能发生地点的概率就愈大。地形高差似乎与本区强震发生的地点无关。FH实验,即未来历史实验(future history test)结果表明:预测是成功的,1882年至1983年中发生了M≥6.0地震的五个地区均被识别为未来可能发生强震的地点。更多还原

【Abstract】 Various features of geology,geomorphology and geophysics in Beijing and its vicinity were studied. Pattern recognition was used to analyze these features. The results show that the earthquake prone areas are related to major active faults and Cenozoic fault basins. In a certain area,the more the number of active faults,the greater is the posibility of strong earthquakes. However there seems to be no relation between the difference in topographical altitude and strong earthquake proneness. The FH experiment shows that pattern recognition is successful: the five areas that were struck by earthquakes of M≥6.0 from 1883 to 1983 have been analyzed by our pattern recognition method and shown to be earthquake prone.更多还原