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西太平洋副热带高压夏季特征量的多层递阶长期预报模型——副高特征量长期预报(一)

THE MULTI-LEVEL RECURSION LONG-RANGE FORECASTING MODELS OF THE SUMMER CHARACTERISTIC QUANTITIES FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH The long-range forecast of the characteristic quantities of the subtropical high(Ⅰ)

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【Author】 Zhang Enshu Mao Yuying ( The Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory )Han Zhigang Tang bingyong ( The Heilongjiang Institute of Applied Mathematics )

【机构】黑龙江省气象台；黑龙江省应用数学研究所；黑龙江省应用数学研究所；

【摘要】本文应用多层递阶预报方法,对西太平洋副热带高压夏季特征量进行了长期预报。试验预报结果表明,预报的趋势准确率和精度较多无回归预报方法有较大的提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 We have made a long-range forecast by using the multi-level recursive forecasting method for the summer characteristic quantities of the Western Pacific subtropical high. The experimental result shows that both the percentage of accuracy and the precision of the tendency of forecast are greatly improved as compared with the method of multiple regression.更多还原

【关键词】长期预报；特征量；西太平洋副高；预报结果；递阶；时变参数；参数估值；青藏高压；多元回归法；长期演变；

【文献出处】高原气象 ,Plateau Meteorology , 编辑部邮箱 ,1984年02期

【被引频次】11
【下载频次】45

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