【摘要】 本文选用某一给定地区三个连续时间段上地震活动性的六个基本统计指标,即地震的总次数N,最大震级M,地震频变与震级关系式中的系数r以及它们随时间的变化量N、M、r,从而算出下一个时间段上发生较大地震的总概率P₁。总概率P₁可用来对该地区较大地震的发震时间作统计预报。作为例子,探索了我国南北地震带银川——松潘段的M≥4.5地震（预报期在一个月之内）及我国西部二省（滇、川）的M_S≥7.0地震（预报期在一年之内）。初步结果表明,这种预报方法在实践中是可以使用的。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we used six basic statistical indexes, the number of earthqua kes N,the maximum magnitude M,the coefficient r in the relational formula for the frequence and the magnitude,and their variation values with time N,M,r,taken in a given region and in three continuative time intervals for estimating the total probablity Pt of the large earthquake occurring next time interval.P1 may be used to predict the time of large earthquake occurrence in this region. For instance,we studied the earthquakes with MS≥4.5 occurred in the Yinchuari-Songfan section of north-south seismic zone in China(prediction tern were in amontn)and the earthquakes with MS≥7.0 occurred in the two provinces (yunnan and Sichuan province) west in China (prediction term were in a year.) The primary results showed this method is useful in pratical earthquake prediction更多还原