【摘要】 本文介绍一个西太平洋台风路径业务数值预告模式及其初步使用结果。该模式利用逆平滑算子提高了计算精度,应用最小二乘方原理引进初始时刻后六小时台风位置,从而改进了预告结果。69次试验性预报以及1977—1979年台风季节的48次业务预告的结果表明,该模式对西太平洋台风路径具有一定的预告能力。本文还指出了该模式存在的缺点与进一步改进的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, an operational numerical forecasting scheme of typhoon tracks over the Western Pacific is proposed. In this scheme, the accuracy of computations is raised by applying the inverse smooth operator, and the prediction is improved by introducing the position of typhoon 6 hours after the initial time with application of least square method. 69 historical cases were experimentally forecasted and 48 cases in the typhoon season of 1977-1979 were forecasted routinely by this scheme with certain success. Finally, the further improving approach of this scheme is discussed.更多还原