【摘要】 <正> 基培尔理论预报方法是苏联气象科学中伟大贡献之一,无论对动力气象学及天气学均有深远的影响,实是近代气象学中一个最巨大的成就,值得我们细心学习钻研.因为基培尔方法所用算式十分繁複,初学者有时苦於不易把握算式的物理意义,因而影响对整个方法的领会.本文目的就在用物理意义比较明显的方法来推导基培尔方法中几个骨干方程,即预报方程,並予以适当的解释;有若干问题更多还原

【Abstract】 Kibel′s forecasting epuations,both to the first and to the second ap-proximation,ara re-derived on the base of the principle,of thermal wind.The physical meaning of such procedure is easy to grasp.The significanceof θ-lines is discussed and it is demonstrated by a graphic method,thatsurface isobars and isotherms must move along θ-lines with the speednumerically equal the gradient of θ-lines.With the aid of thermal windit is shown that there must exist the steering layer,the significance ofwhich is discussed in detail.It is demonstrated that to the first appro-ximation,variations of pressure below and above the steering layer haveopposite signs while variations of temperature are characterized by thesame signs.It is proved with emphasis that the first approximationimplies that isobars,as well as isotherms,at all levels Within the entivetropesphere are steered by the same steering layer and transmitted atthe every same velocity.更多还原