【作者】 李亮；

【导师】 严良；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2025， 博士

【摘要】 随着大数据、物联网、区块链、人工智能等数字技术的创新发展,数字经济正成为支撑经济发展的新动能、实现社会变革的新力量。数字创业作为数字经济的重要组成部分,以Deep Seek、Chat GPT为代表的AI技术突破,改变了传统产业形态、孕育了新业态从而极大推动了经济的发展和社会创新。数字创业聚焦于商业模式创新和技术应用,由此催生的一系列新产品、新服务和新模式给青年的创业提供了新的天地。青年创业者凭借教育背景优势与技术敏锐度,成为驱动数字经济发展的核心动力,如何抓住数字创业的特殊性、提升青年的创业意愿和创业绩效、促进数字经济发展成为当今需要综合探讨和思考的关键课题。现有关于数字创业的相关研究通过不同的理论框架和实证分析,揭示了影响数字创业意愿的多重因素及其相互作用。尽管这些研究揭示了影响因素的多元性,但仍存在研究空间:第一、青年数字创业意愿形成的主要理论依然是传统创业理论,理论未考虑到数字技术和数字生态对创业的特殊性;第二、政策环境在影响数字创业的区域差异中的关键作用还不明晰;第三、数字创业意愿对创业绩效的影响机制尚不明确。基于以上理论缺口与现实困境,本研究致力于探究如下问题:(1)青年数字创业意愿的驱动因素有哪些以及其如何影响数字创业意愿?(2)作为数字创业的重要外部影响因素,当前数字创业政策环境的具体表现、区域差异及其评价如何?(3)青年数字创业意愿对创业绩效的影响路径如何?(4)为提升青年数字创业意愿和创业绩效可以采取哪些对策?为深入分析以上问题,本研究首先基于扎根理论的方法,对访谈数据进行编码分析,通过对核心概念间关系的分析,以及主要范畴对数字创业意愿的影响路径,构建了数字创业意愿的形成模型,探讨了数字创业意愿的驱动逻辑问题。其次,采用文本分析、数据包络分析(DEA)模型、Malmquist指数和PMC模型等量化方法对区域创业创新效率及省级政策文本进行测量,得出了当前的区域创业创新效率情况及数字创业政策效力,为进一步研究打下基础。再次,创新性引入数字创业行为中核心步骤(商业模式创新)作为中介,构建了包含外部创业政策影响因素和内部重要行为变量的创业意愿影响创业绩效的理论模型,并实证探讨了青年数字创业意愿如何影响数字创业绩效。最后,系统构建了青年数字创业实践提升的立体化对策框架,从意愿激活与绩效提升双重维度切入,针对数字创业的生态化特征与动态性挑战提出适配性的解决方案。本研究最终得出以下结论:(1)研究识别出感知合意性、感知可行性、触发事件、数字网络嵌入与数字身份认同是影响青年数字创业的五大核心驱动因素。区别于传统创业影响因素,发现了数字创业情境下的独立驱动因素。构建的理论模型揭示,数字网络嵌入能通过资源代偿机制消解传统可行性壁垒(如开源协作替代资本储备),而数字身份认同则通过社群归属与价值承诺弱化功利性评估(如技术布道使命感驱动非经济导向创业)。(2)聚焦区域创业创新效率与数字创业政策两大核心因素,研究发现,东部沿海省份(如北京、上海)凭借高效创新要素配置与成熟创业生态长期保持领先,而中西部省份(如内蒙古、河北)虽增速显著但受外部冲击波动较大,区域间技术效率与技术进步水平不均衡现象突出。政策层面,全国政策普遍侧重“服务”“创新”等共性议题,但不同区域呈现差异化导向。基于PMC模型的评估显示,山东、浙江等地政策综合效力较高,但多数地区需强化政策前瞻性与工具多样性。(3)针对青年数字创业意愿对创业绩效的作用机制、融合内部数字商业模式变量及外部政策环境变量构建了理论模型。研究发现:第一,数字创业意愿对创业绩效具有显著正向影响,数字创业意愿作为青年创业者积极拥抱数字技术与创新机会的倾向,是推动新创数字企业实现卓越创业绩效的重要因素。第二,数字商业模式创新在数字创业意愿和数字创业绩效之间存在显著的中介效应。第三,青年创业者在数字创业过程中嵌入的外部环境和自身的数字创业能力在上述中介效应过程中存在显著的调节作用。区域创业创新效率与政策有效性在“意愿—创新”路径中发挥正向调节作用,数字创业能力则强化了“创新—绩效”转化效率,证实了“环境赋能—能力兑现”的双重加速机制。(4)在措施方面,第一,基于数字创业意愿形成理论模型,从数字创业生态特色提出支撑框架,揭示政策工具、技术设施与文化认知如何影响数字创业意愿,第二,基于“意愿—绩效”转化模型,强调数字创业能力、数字商业模式创新、数字创业环境的重要作用,提出了针对性的提升对策。为了充分挖掘青年数字意愿创业绩效的影响机理,本文探讨了青年数字创业意愿的形成机制以及青年数字创业意愿对企业创新绩效的影响机制,具有如下贡献:第一、基于扎根理论,系统探究了青年数字创业意愿的形成机制,提出了青年数字创业影响因素的理论模型。突破了传统创业研究对多维度耦合性关注不足的局限,为数字经济研究提供了“理论构建-情境化测量”协同创新的方法论范例。第二、基于DEA和Malmquist指数及PMC模型方法,构建了数字创业政策与区域创新效率的联动分析框架,提出区域数字创业政策效力的动态评价体系。该创新性的方法整合为数字经济政策研究提供了标准化分析模板,为后续数字创业研究提供理论指导及方法论。第三、突破传统创业研究“单层次归因”的局限,基于“意愿-行为-结果”逻辑,构建了“政策-环境-个体”多层级交互的理论框架,并揭示数字商业模式创新在数字创业意愿影响数字创业绩效过程中的关键中介价值。首次将区域创业创新效率、政策有效性等宏观环境要素与数字创业能力等微观个体特征纳入统一分析模型,揭示数字创业意愿向绩效转化的系统性作用机制,实证验证了“环境赋能-能力兑现”双重加速机制,为数字创业生态系统理论提供了跨层整合的新范式,同时填补了数字创业研究中“意愿-绩效”黑箱的解释缺口,为资源编排理论在数字情境下的应用拓展了动态过程视角。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the innovative development of digital technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence,the digital economy has become a new driving force supporting economic growth and a new power for social transformation.As a crucial component of the digital economy,breakthroughs in AI technologies represented by Deep Seek and Chat GPT have transformed traditional industrial forms,fostered new business models,and significantly propelled economic development and social innovation.Young entrepreneurs,leveraging their educational advantages and technological acumen,have emerged as the core drivers of the digital economy.How to grasp the unique characteristics of digital entrepreneurship,enhance young people’s entrepreneurial intention and performance,and promote the development of the digital economy has become a key issue requiring comprehensive discussion and reflection.Existing research on digital entrepreneurship reveals the diversity of influencing factors,but there is still room for further exploration:(1)The main theories explaining the formation of young people’s digital entrepreneurial intention still rely on traditional entrepreneurship theories,which fail to account for the specificity of digital technologies and digital ecosystems to entrepreneurship;(2)The critical role of the policy environment in influencing regional differences in digital entrepreneurship remains unclear;(3)The impact mechanism of digital entrepreneurial intention on entrepreneurial performance is not yet well-defined.Based on these theoretical gaps and practical challenges,this study aims to investigate the following questions:(1)What are the driving factors of youth digital entrepreneurial intention,and how do they influence it?(2)As a key external factor,what is the current performance,regional variation,and evaluation of digital entrepreneurship policy environments?(3)What is the impact pathway of youth digital entrepreneurial intention on entrepreneurial performance?(4)What strategies can enhance youth digital entrepreneurial intention and performance?To address these questions,this study first uses grounded theory to code and analyze interview data,constructing a model for the formation of digital entrepreneurial intention and exploring the driving logic behind it.Second,quantitative methods such as text analysis,Malmquist index,and PMC model are employed to measure regional innovation and entrepreneurship efficiency and provincial-level policy texts,revealing the current status of regional innovation and entrepreneurship efficiency and the effectiveness of digital entrepreneurship policies.Third,business model innovation is innovatively introduced as a mediator to construct a theoretical model that includes external policy factors and internal behavioral variables,and empirical analysis is conducted.Finally,a three-dimensional framework of countermeasures is systematically developed to enhance young people’s digital entrepreneurial intention and performance.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Five core drivers of youth digital entrepreneurial intention are identified:perceived desirability,perceived feasibility,triggering events,digital network embedding,and digital identity.Unlike traditional entrepreneurship factors,these reflect context-specific drivers in digital settings.The model reveals that digital network embedding dissolves traditional feasibility barriers through resource compensation mechanisms,while digital identity weakens utilitarian evaluation via community belonging and value commitment.(2)Focusing on regional innovation efficiency and digital entrepreneurship policies,the study finds that eastern coastal provinces maintain leadership through efficient innovation resource allocation and mature ecosystems,while central-western provinces show rapid growth but greater vulnerability to external shocks,with prominent imbalances in technical efficiency and progress across regions.Nationally,policies generally emphasize"services"and"innovation"but regional priorities differ.PMC model evaluations show high comprehensive policy effectiveness in Shandong and Zhejiang,though most regions need stronger policy foresight and tool diversity.(3)A theoretical model integrating internal digital business model variables and external policy environments reveals:(1)Digital entrepreneurial intention has a significant positive impact on performance,serving as a key driver for digital startups to achieve excellence.(2)Digital business model innovation mediates the relationship between intention and performance.(3)External environments(regional innovation efficiency,policy effectiveness)and individual digital entrepreneurship capabilities moderate this mediation.Regional efficiency and policy effectiveness positively moderate the"intention-innovation"pathway,while capabilities enhance"innovation-performance"conversion efficiency,validating a dual acceleration mechanism of"environmental empowerment-capability realization."(4)A support framework for digital entrepreneurship ecosystems,based on the intention formation model,addressing how policy tools,technological infrastructure,and cultural cognition influence intention.Targeted strategies for enhancing digital entrepreneurship capabilities,business model innovation,and environmental conditions,derived from the"intention-performance"transformation model.This study contributes by:(1)Systematically exploring the formation mechanism of youth digital entrepreneurial intention through grounded theory,proposing a multi-dimensional theoretical model and offering a"theory construction-contextual measurement"methodological paradigm for digital economy research.(2)Developing a linked analytical framework for digital entrepreneurship policies and regional innovation efficiency using DEA,Malmquist index,and PMC model,providing a standardized template for digital economy policy research.(3)Breaking through the"single-level attribution"limitation of traditional entrepreneurship research,constructing a multi-layered"policy-environment-individual"interaction framework,and revealing the mediating role of digital business model innovation.By integrating macro-level factors and micro-level characteristics into a unified model,the study illuminates the systematic mechanism of intention-performance transformation,validates the"environmental-capability"dual acceleration mechanism,and offers a cross-level integrative paradigm for digital entrepreneurship ecosystem theory,filling the explanatory gap in the"intention-performance"black box.更多还原