【作者】 周宇；

【导师】 杨良松；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 财政学， 2024， 博士

【摘要】 预算是财政的基础和核心,预算制度则是国家治理的核心。党的二十大对“健全现代预算制度”作出了最新战略部署。现代预算制度与中国式现代化、国家治理体系和治理能力现代化相匹配,其本质要求和重要表现是预算约束有力。但中国地方财政支出预决算偏离较大,年初预算难以有效约束预算执行。以2019年一般公共预算为例,全国31个省份支出预决算偏离度(以决算数/年初预算数×100%-1计算)均值达17%;数据可得的312个地市支出偏离度均值达34%;广西、四川和内蒙古的县级支出偏离度均值达49%、80%和104%;部分科目和部分部门的支出偏离严重。大幅度的预决算偏离严重削弱了预算应有的约束力和规范性,表明年初预算、调整预算与决算的管理规则和决策机制存在缺陷。研究支出预决算偏离,对于健全现代预算制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化具有重要意义。本文按照由总到分、层层递进的原则,对地方一般公共预算支出预决算偏离进行研究。首先分析总支出偏离的特征事实,并通过分解地方支出预算调整项目理解总支出预决算偏离的成因,再研究不同支出经济分类科目和功能分类科目差异,测度县级不同部门偏离之不同,系统研究地方财政支出预决算偏离的特征与影响因素。主要研究发现介绍如下:第一,基于手工收集整理的全国省级、市级和东中西部八省县级数据,测度地方一般公共预算总支出预决算偏离的特征事实。发现省级财政支出总体呈现“超支”,偏离度自2012年后趋于下降,中西部地区的偏离度较高。还发现地方财政总支出年初预算编制存在“代编”与“汇编”两种方式,且代编预算有“量入为出”与“基数预算”之分,不同规则下偏离度大不相同。市级财政支出总体上也是超支,通常高于省级偏离度,省际与省内差异明显。基于东中西部八省1000余个县的数据分析表明,县级财政支出普遍超支,西部县级偏离度高于东部和中部,省内区县间也有显著差异。第二,研究地方财政支出的预算调整及其主要构成项目,发现地方一般公共预算总支出预决算偏离的主要影响因素。分解地方财政支出预算过程发现,预决算偏离主要是调整预算偏离年初预算,而决算偏离调整预算幅度较低。甲省多种数据显示,转移支付、调入资金等项目对地方总支出预算调整有重要影响。转移支付的规模较大,分配程序导致部分资金在预算执行中下达,从而影响支出预算调整,不发达地区尤为明显,且一般性和专项转移支付影响也有异。近年来一般公共预算中来自政府性基金预算等的调入资金规模较大,主要是预算执行中调入;债务收入也主要是在预算执行中增加,从而影响预算调整,进一步提高预决算偏离度。基于四川省县级数据的计量分析证实转移支付等项目对预决算偏离具有显著影响。第三,测度主要支出经济分类科目和功能分类科目偏离度,发掘地方一般公共预算支出预决算偏离的科目间差异。首先,基于甲省数据分析经济分类科目差异,发现项目支出偏离度高于基本支出,基本支出中的人员经费又高于公用经费,部分地区公用经费还出现少支,项目支出中的基本建设类项目又高于行政事业类项目。探讨定员定额预算编制、地方人员目标绩效奖等对人员和公用经费偏离的影响。其次,多种数据表明主要功能分类科目的偏离度有所不同,一般公共服务和教育支出等以基本支出为主的科目偏离度相对不高;节能环保、城乡社区和农林水支出等以项目支出为主的科目偏离度相对较高;其他支出类则出现大幅少支。进一步分析若干重要款级功能分类科目偏离度差异。最后,科目预决算偏离的原因有二,一方面,年初预算中其他支出类、其他支出款和预备费中有预留资金,另一方面,政策与年初预算的横向分离和纵向分离导致部分科目受大幅冲击。第四,基于甲省三个代表性区县的近600个部门多年数据,研究地方一般公共预算支出预决算偏离的部门间差异。作为政府预算的主体,研究部门预算为理解预决算偏离提供微观基础。发现经济发达的w区的人员经费偏离度高于项目支出,但较不发达的f县和p县部分部门的项目支出预决算偏离度较高,大量部门甚至是项目支出规模大的部门年初项目预算为零;部分主管部门代编下辖二级预算单位预算,教育系统尤为典型。典型部门分析发现部门间有较大差异,基本支出较多的部门偏离度相对较低,部分项目支出较多的业务部门偏离度较高,且年初预算安排不足是偏离度较高的重要原因。基于其他17个区县3900个部门的研究,证实了部门项目支出预算管理问题的一般性。部门支出预决算偏离的原因分析表明,部门预算管理问题的长期存在有其主观性,如相关部门重视不够、管理粗放;也与单位缺乏合格财务管理人员,对部门预算的监督不足等客观因素有关。本文研究有如下政策性启示:一是要加强对预算编制和预算调整的管理和监督,持续关注财政支出预决算偏离尤其是决算大幅超支问题,加强预算调整与变动管理,优化上级补助收入和债务收入分配流程;二是要重点关注项目支出预算管理,以及偏离度较高的节能环保、城乡社区和农林水支出等功能分类科目;三是要规范部门年初预算编制,减少甚至杜绝部门项目零预算的执行,规范代编预算,并关注偏离度较高的业务部门。本文相较于现有文献的边际贡献可能有三点:第一,基于全国省级、市级与部分省份的县级数据,对一般公共预算总支出预决算偏离的特征事实进行了系统刻画,并发现地区财政总支出年初预算编制存在多种规则。第二,聚焦预算调整,测度转移支付、调入资金、债务收入和预算稳定调节基金等项目对预算调整的影响,理解上述项目影响预算调整进而影响预决算偏离的具体机制;第三,探究一般公共预算支出预决算偏离的经济分类科目、功能分类科目差异和部门间差异,发掘偏离度较高的项目支出、重点功能分类科目和重点部门,对支出偏离的刻画更加清晰。本文也存在一定不足,有待未来研究继续深化。一是部分章节主要基于甲省数据进行分析,虽然甲省市县具有较强的多样性,但未来也可考虑进一步使用其他地区数据,使得研究发现更具一般性;二是相关原因分析主要基于财政管理数据进行,对影响预决算偏离的深层制度因素也可有更多挖掘。更多还原

【Abstract】 The budget is the foundation of finance,and the budget system is the core of national governance.The Twentieth Party Congress has made the latest strategic deployment for"improving the modern budget system".The modern budget system matches the modernization of China,the modernization of the national governance system and the modernization of governance capacity,and its essential requirement and important manifestation is a strong budget constraint.However,there is a large deviation from the budgets of local financial expenditures in China,and it is difficult to effectively constrain the implementation of the budget at the beginning of the year.Taking the 2019 general public budget as an example,the average value of expenditure budget deviation(calculated as the number of final accounts/the number of budgets at the beginning of the year×100%-1)in 31 provinces across the country amounted to 17%;the average value of expenditure deviation in 312 cities and municipalities for which the data are available amounted to 34%;the average values of expenditure deviation at the county level in Guangxi,Sichuan,and Inner Mongolia amounted to 49%,80%,and 104%;and the deviation of expenditures in some subjects and in some departments was severe The expenditure deviation of some subjects and some departments is serious.Large budgetary deviations have seriously weakened the binding and standardized nature of the budget,indicating that there are deficiencies in the rules and decision-making mechanisms for managing the budget at the beginning of the year and for adjusting the budget and final accounts.The study of deviations from the budget and final accounts of expenditures is of great significance to the improvement of the modern budgetary system and the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity.This paper studies the local general public budget expenditure budget deviation in accordance with the principle of from total to division and layer by layer.Firstly,it analyzes the fact of the characteristics of the deviation of total expenditure,and understands the causes of the deviation of total expenditure budget by decomposing the adjustment items of local expenditure budget,and then studies the differences of different economic classification subjects and functional classification subjects of expenditure,measures the deviation of different departments at the county level,and systematically researches the characteristics of the deviation of the budget and the influencing factors of the local financial expenditures.The main findings of the study are introduced as follows:First,based on hand-collected data at the provincial,municipal and county levels in eight provinces in the east,central and western regions of China,the characteristics of deviations from the budget and final accounts of the total expenditure of the local general public budget are measured.It was found that provincial-level fiscal expenditures were generally"overspent",and that the degree of deviation tended to decline since 2012,with a higher degree of deviation in the central and western regions.It was also found that there are two ways of preparing the budget at the beginning of the year for the total local financial expenditure,namely,"tentative budget"(tentative budget amounts prepared by the Higher Government for other government departments or programs)and summarizing budgets,and that the budget compiled on behalf of the local government has a distinction between"determining expenditures on the basis of revenues"and"incremental budgeting".There is a distinction between"incremental budgeting"and"revenue-based budgeting",and the degree of deviation varies greatly under different rules.Municipal financial expenditures are also generally overspent,usually at a higher level than provincial deviation"incremental budgeting"ns,with significant interprovincial and intraprovincial differences.Analysis of data based on more than 1,000 counties in eight provinces in the east,central and west shows that county-level fiscal expenditures are generally overspent,with higher deviations at the county level in the west than in the east and central parts of the country,and with significant differences between districts and counties within provinces.Second,the budgetary adjustments of local financial expenditures and their main constituent items are examined to discover the main influencing factors of the budgetary deviation of the total local general public budget expenditures.Decomposing the budgetary process of local financial expenditures,it is found that the pre-budget deviation is mainly the adjustment budget deviation from the budget at the beginning of the year,while the final budget deviation from the adjustment budget is low.A variety of data in Province A shows that transfer payments,transferred funds and other items have an important impact on the adjustment of the total local expenditure budget.The scale of transfer payments is large,and the allocation procedure leads to part of the funds being handed down in budget execution,thus affecting the expenditure budget adjustment,which is particularly obvious in underdeveloped areas,and the impact of general and special transfer payments is also different.In recent years,the scale of transferred funds from governmental fund budgets and other sources in the general public budget has been large,mainly in budget execution;debt income has also increased mainly in budget execution,thus affecting budget adjustment and further increasing the degree of deviation from the budget.An econometric analysis based on county-level data in Sichuan Province confirms that items such as transfer payments have a significant impact on the degree of deviation from the budge.Thirdly,we measure the deviation of the economic and functional classifications of major expenditures to find out the inter-account differences in the deviation of the budget and final accounts of local general public budget expenditures.Firstly,based on the data of Province A,we analyze the differences of economic classification subjects and find that the deviation of project expenditure is higher than that of basic expenditure,personnel expenses in basic expenditure is higher than that of public utilities,and public utilities are also under-expended in some areas,and capital construction projects in project expenditure is higher than that of administrative and utility projects.The impact of fixed-personnel and fixed-quota budgeting and local personnel target performance awards on the deviation of personnel and public funds is explored.Second,a variety of data show that the degree of deviation of major functional classification subjects varies,with relatively modest deviations in subjects dominated by basic expenditures,such as general public services and education expenditures;relatively high deviations in subjects dominated by project expenditures,such as energy-saving and environmental protection,urban and rural communities,and agriculture,forestry and water expenditures;and significant under-expenditures in the other expenditure categories.Differences in the degree of deviation for a number of important section-level functional classification accounts are further analyzed.Finally,the reasons for the deviation of the accounts from the budget are twofold:on the one hand,there are funds reserved in the other expenditure categories,other expenditure sections and reserve funds in the budget at the beginning of the year,and on the other hand,the horizontal separation of policies from the budget at the beginning of the year and the vertical separation have led to a significant impact on some accounts.Fourth,based on multi-year data from nearly 600 departments in three representative districts and counties in Province A,we study the inter-departmental differences in the degree of budgetary deviation of local general public budget expenditures.As the main body of the government budget,studying departmental budgets provides a micro-foundation for understanding budgetary deviations.It is found that the deviation of personnel expenditure is higher than that of project expenditure in the economically developed w district,but some departments in the less developed f and p counties have higher deviations from the project expenditure budgets,and a large number of departments,even those with large project expenditures,have zero project budgets at the beginning of the year;some competent departments prepare the budgets of the secondary budget units under their jurisdiction on behalf of the departments,with the education system being particularly typical.Typical departmental analysis found that there are large differences between departments,with relatively low deviation in departments with high basic expenditures,higher deviation in some business departments with high project expenditures,and insufficient budgetary arrangements at the beginning of the year is an important reason for the high deviation.A study based on 3,900departments in 17 other districts and counties confirms the generality of the budget management problems of departmental project expenditures.The analysis of the reasons for the degree of deviation from departmental budgets shows that the persistence of departmental budget management problems is subjective,such as insufficient attention and sloppy management by the relevant departments;it is also related to objective factors,such as the lack of qualified financial management personnel in the units and insufficient supervision of departmental budgets.The research in this paper has the following policy insights:first,the management and supervision of budgeting and budget adjustment should be strengthened,sustained attention should be paid to the problem of deviation from the budget and final accounts of financial expenditures,especially the problem of substantial overspending in the final accounts,and the management of budget adjustments and changes should be strengthened,so as to optimize the process of allocating higher-level subsidy revenues and debt revenues;second,we should pay attention to the management of the budget of project expenditures,and to energy conservation,environmental protection,urban-rural and rural community,and agriculture,forestry and water expenditures,which have higher deviations in the functional classification subjects;third,it is necessary to standardize departmental budgeting at the beginning of the year,reduce or even eliminate the implementation of departmental project zero budgets,standardize the budget on behalf of the budget,and pay attention to business departments with a high degree of deviation.The marginal contribution of this paper compared to the existing literature may be threefold.First,based on the national provincial,municipal and county data of some provinces,it systematically portrays the characteristic facts of the deviation from the budget of the total expenditure of the general public budget and finds that there are various rules for the budgeting of the total expenditure of the regional finance.Secondly,focusing on budget adjustment,we measure the impact of transfer payments,transferred funds,debt revenue and budget stabilization fund on budget adjustment,and understand the specific mechanism of the above items affecting budget adjustment and thus budget deviation;thirdly,we explore the differences in economic classification subjects,functional classification subjects and inter-departmental differences in the degree of deviation of the general public budget expenditures from the budget,so as to find out the project expenditures with a higher degree of deviation,Thirdly,it explores the differences between economic classification subjects,functional classification subjects and departments in terms of the deviation of general public budget expenditures,and explores project expenditures,key functional classification subjects and key departments with higher deviation degrees,so as to draw a clearer picture of the deviation of expenditure.This paper also has certain shortcomings,which need to be deepened in future research.First,part of the chapter is mainly based on the data of Province A for analysis,although Province A cities and counties have a strong diversity,but in the future we can also consider the further use of data from other regions,so that the research findings are more general;secondly,the analysis of the relevant reasons is mainly based on the financial management data,and there can be more excavation of the deeper systemic factors affecting the deviation of the budgets and the final accounts.更多还原