【作者】 张莹；

【导师】 黄颖利；

【作者基本信息】 东北林业大学 ， 碳汇经济管理， 2025， 博士

【摘要】 中国传统“高开采、高消耗、高排放、低利用”的粗放式经济发展模式导致国内能源消耗量巨大,造成了生态恶化和资源枯竭等环境污染问题。为了缓解环境治理压力和履行大国责任,我国近年来出台了一系列减排政策。2022年党的二十大报告指出坚持山水林田湖一体化保护和系统治理,要统筹产业结构调整、污染治理、生态保护和应对气候变化,通过降碳减污扩绿增长协同推进美丽中国建设。降碳减污扩绿增长协同推进是新时代生态文明的发展范式,是建设人与自然和谐共生现代化的关键。碳交易政策作为典型的市场型激励工具,有助于发挥降碳对生态环境质量改善的源头牵引作用,对扩绿增长的协调激励作用,以促进降碳减污扩绿增长从“弱相关”走向“强联合”。在此背景下,探讨碳交易政策对降碳减污扩绿增长的影响研究,更加贴合推进经济高质量发展和生态文明建设的现实需求。本文按照“文献梳理→理论框架→子系统和协同系统构建与测度→影响评估→政策建议”的研究思路。首先,构建降碳减污扩绿增长的评价指标体系,运用熵值-TOPSIS法测度降碳减污扩绿增长子系统水平并分析其时空特征。其次,利用复合系统协同度模型测度降碳减污扩绿增长协同系统的发展水平,使用Dagum基尼系数和核密度估计方法分析降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展水平的空间差异和空间动态演进特征。再次,使用非期望产出SBM对偶模型、耦合协调度和GTWR模型测算边际降碳成本和边际减污成本及两者的协同关系,并在此基础上,实证检验碳交易政策对降碳减污的影响效应,验证碳交易政策对扩绿增长的影响效应。最后,使用多期双重差分法模型实证检验碳交易政策对降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展的影响效应,同时运用中介效应模型检验产业结构升级、绿色技术创新和能源结构转型在碳交易政策中的传导路径和贡献度,并深入剖析不同经济增长质量和行政干预的地区下碳交易政策对降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展影响的异质性。结果表明:(1)2007～2022年全国扩绿和增长水平呈上升趋势,降碳水平呈平稳下降态势,减污水平呈上升后下降的态势。空间上西北和黄河中游地区的减污水平较高,西南和南部沿海地区的降碳水平最高,西北、西南和东北地区的扩绿水平比较高,北部、东部和南部沿海地区的增长水平最高。(2)2007～2022年全国及八大经济区的降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展水平整体上呈现上升趋势,降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展的总体差异逐渐缩小,区域间差异明显,超变密度和区域间贡献度最大,区域内的差异贡献最小。空间上整体呈现“南高北低、东高西低”的渐进式分布,核密度估计显示降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展水平总体保持上升的趋势,从集中演变到分散,各区域间由差异性扩大演变到差异性缩小。(3)2007～2022年中国边际降碳成本与边际减污成本总体表明为逐年上升态势,边际降碳成本的提升幅度显著快于边际减污成本。从两者协同程度看中国降碳减污的负外部性成本总体随时间变化呈现“快速上升-稳定上升”趋势,且协同关系大致经历了濒临协同和勉强协同两个阶段的演变。空间变化方面整体上呈现南、东和北部沿海向中西部地区差异化递减的空间格局,协同较高值区占据主流。空间自相关分析认为负外部性成本指数在空间上呈显著正相关,且以“高高”集聚为主。标准差椭圆基本覆盖中国东部、中部与少量西部省份,重心轨迹主要分布于河南省,呈现“西进东退”特征。影响因素方面,碳强度、大气污染物排放强度和绿色技术创新是关键的影响因素,环境规制、产业结构合理化指数和能源消费结构低碳化指数也存在显著影响,各影响因素存在显著的空间异质性。实证结果表明从边际减排成本角度碳交易政策实施促进了降碳减污的影响,提高了对扩绿增长影响。(4)碳交易政策试点实施后促进了降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展,影响效果为2.4%。产业结构升级、绿色技术创新和能源结构转型对碳交易政策对降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展存在中介效应,且中介变量贡献值分别为7.42%、9.64%和0.39%,绿色技术创新的贡献度最大,产业结构升级次之,能源结构转型最低。异质性分析表明碳交易政策对降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展具有显著异质性,在不同的经济发展地区,碳交易政策对经济增长质量较高地区的降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展影响较强,相比于行政干预程度较低地区,碳交易政策对行政干预程度较高地区促进作用更明显。总体而言,本文从子系统和协同系统角度评估了碳交易政策对降碳减污扩绿增长的影响,回答了如何设计最优碳交易政策以最低成本实现降碳减污扩绿增长协同发展这一关键问题,为制定全国碳交易政策的制度设计提供科学思路,推进经济社会实现全面低碳转型和高质量绿色发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s traditional high extraction,high consumption,high emission,low utilization model of crude economic development has led to huge domestic energy consumption,resulting in ecological deterioration,resource depletion and other environmental pollution problems.In order to alleviate the pressure of environmental management and fulfill the responsibility of a large country,China has introduced a series of emission reduction policies in recent years.2022 the 20th Party Congress report pointed out that adhere to the integration of mountain,water,forest,field and lake protection and systematic management,to integrate industrial restructuring,pollution control,ecological protection and response to climate change,through carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green growth synergistically promote the construction of a beautiful China.Carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green growth and synergistic promotion is the development paradigm of ecological civilization in the new era,and is the key to building a modernization of harmonious coexistence between human beings and nature.Carbon trading policy,as a typical market-based policy tool,helps to play the role of carbon reduction on the ecological environment quality improvement of the source traction,in order to promote carbon reduction,pollution expansion and green growth from“weak correlation”to“strong union”.In this context,based on the basis of pollution and carbon reduction,quantify the green and growth,explore the impact of carbon trading policy on carbon reduction,pollution and green growth research,more in line with the real needs of promoting the high-quality development of the economy and the construction of ecological civilization.First of all,in order to solve the question of"What is the level of China’s carbon reduction,pollution reduction,greening and growth subsystem?What are the spatial and temporal characteristics?"First,to address the question of“What are the spatial and temporal characteristics of the carbon reduction,pollution reduction,greening and growth subsystems in China?”,this thesis adopts the Equivalent Factor Method(EFM)to quantify the“value of ecosystem services”and the SBM-GML index to quantify the“greening”indicator.The SBM-GML index is used to measure the“green total factor productivity”and quantify the“growth”index,and on the basis of this,we construct the evaluation index system of carbon reduction,pollution reduction,greening and growth,and utilize the entropy value-TOPSIS method to measure“pollution reduction”,“carbon reduction”,‘greening’and“growth”.The entropy value-TOPSIS method is used to measure the levels of“pollution reduction”,“carbon reduction”,‘greening’and“growth”and analyze their spatial and temporal characteristics.It is found that the levels of“greening”and‘growth’show an upward trend,the level of“carbon reduction”shows a steady decline,and the level of“pollution reduction”shows an upward trend from 2007 to 2022.The level of“pollution reduction”shows an upward trend,followed by a downward trend.Spatially,the level of“pollution reduction”is higher in the northwest and the middle reaches of the Yellow River,the level of“carbon reduction”is the highest in the southwest and the southern coastal areas,the level of“greening”is higher in the northwest,southwest and northeast,the level of‘greening’is higher in the north,east and south,and the level of“greening”is higher in the north,east and south.The Northwest,Southwest and Northeast regions have the highest levels of“greening”,while the North,East and South Coast regions have the highest levels of“growth”.Secondly,in order to solve the question of"What is the level of synergistic development of China’s carbon reduction,pollution reduction,greening and growth composite system?What are the spatial differences?What are the characteristics of dynamic evolution?In order to solve the question,this thesis applies the composite system synergy model to measure the level of synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution expansion and greening growth,and analyzes the spatial differences in the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution expansion and greening growth and the characteristics of the spatial dynamic evolution by using the Dagum’s Gini coefficient and the kernel density estimation method.The study found that:from 2007 to 2022,the level of synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and greening growth in the country and the eight economic regions as a whole showed an upward trend,and the overall differences in synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and greening growth gradually narrowed,with obvious inter-regional differences,and the hypervariable density and the inter-regional contribution were the largest,and the contribution of intra-regional differences was the smallest.Spatially,the overall progressive distribution of“high in the south and low in the north,high in the east and low in the west”is shown,and the kernel density estimation shows that the level of synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and greening growth maintains an upward trend in general,evolving from centralized to decentralized,with the differences between regions expanding to narrowing.Again,in order to address the question of"Does China’s carbon trading policy have an impact on pollution reduction?Does it have an impact on green growth?How big is the impact effect?"This thesis uses the non-expected output SBM dyadic model,the coupled coordination model and the GTWR model to measure the marginal cost of carbon reduction and the marginal cost of pollution reduction,the synergistic relationship between the two,and the influencing factors.On this basis,the impact of carbon trading policy on pollution reduction and carbon reduction,and the impact on green growth expansion were empirically examined using the multi-period double difference method model.It is found that from 2007 to 2022,China’s marginal cost of carbon reduction and marginal cost of pollution reduction generally show a year-on-year increase,and the marginal cost of carbon reduction rises significantly faster than the marginal cost of pollution reduction.In terms of the degree of synergy between the two,China’s negative externality costs of pollution reduction and carbon reduction generally show a trend of“rapid rise-stable rise”over time,and the synergistic relationship has gone through the evolution of two stages:near synergy and barely synergistic.The overall spatial changes show a differentiated spatial pattern of decreasing synergies from the south,east and north coasts to the central and west regions,with the higher synergies dominating the area.Spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests that the negative externality cost index is spatially significantly positively correlated,and“high and high”agglomeration is dominant.The standard deviation ellipse basically covers the eastern,central and a few western provinces of China,and the center of gravity trajectory is mainly distributed in Henan Province,showing the characteristic of“westward and eastward”.In terms of influencing factors,carbon intensity,air pollutant emission intensity and green technology innovation are the key influencing factors,while environmental regulation,industrial structure rationalization index and energy consumption structure low-carbonization index also have significant influence.Finally,in order to address the question"Does China’s carbon trading policy have an impact on carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green growth and synergistic development?How big is the impact?Through what channels does it promote the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and green growth?"This thesis uses a multi-period double-difference model to empirically test the effect of carbon trading policy on the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and greening growth,and at the same time,uses the mediation effect model to test the role of industrial structure upgrading,green technology innovation and energy structure transformation in the role of the carbon trading policy and the degree of contribution,and analyze the heterogeneity of the impacts of carbon trading policy on the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and greening growth in different regions with different economic development and administrative interventions.The study also analyzes the heterogeneity of the impact of carbon trading policies on carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green growth and synergistic development in regions with different economic development and administrative intervention.The study finds that the pilot implementation of carbon trading policy promotes the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and green growth,with an impact effect of 2.4%.Industrial structure upgrading,green technology innovation and energy structure transformation have mediating effects on the synergistic development of carbon trading policy on carbon reduction,pollution reduction and greening growth,and the mediating variable contribution values are 7.42%,9.64%and 0.39%respectively,with the contribution of green technology innovation being the largest,industrial structure upgrading the second and energy structure transformation the lowest.Heterogeneity analysis shows that carbon trading policy has significant heterogeneity on the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and green growth,in different economic development regions,carbon trading policy has a stronger impact on the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and green growth in the regions with higher quality of economic growth,and compared with the regions with a lower degree of administrative intervention,carbon trading policy has a more obvious role in promoting the regions with a higher degree of administrative intervention.Overall,this thesis systematically evaluates the impact of carbon trading policy on carbon reduction,pollution reduction and green growth,and answers the key question of how to design the optimal carbon trading policy to realize the synergistic development of carbon reduction,pollution reduction and green growth at the lowest cost,so as to provide a scientific idea for the institutional design of the national carbon trading policy,and to push forward economic and social development to realize the comprehensive low-carbon transformation and high-quality green development.更多还原