【作者】 陈芳；

【导师】 赵涛；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工商管理， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 碳排放与经济发展息息相关,如何实现经济脱碳,已成为中国碳达峰与碳中和发展道路上急需解决的关键问题之一。经济发展与碳排放的脱钩效应是衡量经济脱碳程度的重要指标,关于脱钩效应,学者多从国家层面或省域层面展开研究,间接地分析脱钩效应的影响因素,中国城市经济发展与碳排放的脱钩效应及其影响因素尚未明确。此外,社会经济活动产生的碳排放主要来源于生产过程,碳排放效率是将生产过程考虑在内来反映经济发展与碳排放关系的指标,提高碳排放效率是促进经济脱碳的重要途径。关于碳排放效率,部分学者通过对比分析,研究了不同地理位置、经济发展水平、城镇化水平等情况下碳排放效率及其影响因素的差异,未考虑经济脱碳背景下脱钩效应与碳排放效率的内在关联性,且较少学者关注中国城市碳排放效率及其影响因素,中国城市的碳排放效率及其提升路径尚未明确。鉴于此,本文以中国284个城市为研究对象,从城市层面对脱钩效应和碳排放效率展开研究,具体研究内容和主要结论如下:(1)基于Tapio脱钩理论,本文研究了中国城市经济发展与碳排放的脱钩效应,分析了中国城市的脱钩状态,研究发现强脱钩、弱脱钩、扩张耦合和扩张负脱钩是中国城市主要的脱钩状态。在此基础上,利用LMDI分解分析方法分解了脱钩效应,直接地分析了脱钩效应的影响因素。研究表明,能源结构因素和能源强度因素是脱钩效应在不同脱钩状态城市中存在差异的主要原因,通过提高效率优化能源结构、降低能源强度,对提高经济发展与碳排放的脱钩程度至关重要。(2)利用超效率SBM-DEA模型,本文从静态视角分析了中国城市碳排放效率,结果显示,中国城市碳排放效率水平主要集中在0.2至0.6区间,强脱钩城市更有可能达到有效水平。其次,根据脱钩效应,本文将中国城市划分为强脱钩城市、弱脱钩城市、扩张耦合城市及扩张负脱钩城市,依据STIRPAT模型,分别研究了不同脱钩状态城市碳排放效率的影响因素。研究表明,经济发展水平和人口规模是提高碳排放效率的主要因素,公共交通设施是降低碳排放效率的主要因素,产业结构、消费倾向以及外商直接投资是不同脱钩状态城市碳排放效率存在差异的主要因素。发展绿色经济与提高人口素质,是提高中国城市碳排放效率的重要途径。(3)利用DEA-Malmquist指数模型,本文从动态视角研究了中国城市碳排放效率的动态变化,研究表明,中国城市碳排放效率指数整体呈增长趋势,碳排放效率逐年增长的城市数量在不断增加。此外,结合脱钩效应,利用分解分析方法研究了强脱钩城市、弱脱钩城市、扩张耦合城市及扩张负脱钩城市的碳排放效率动态变化的影响因素。结果显示,技术变化与纯技术效率变化对碳排放效率增长分别具有抑制作用和促进作用,同时是引起强脱钩城市与扩张负脱钩城市碳排放效率指数存在差异的主要原因;规模效率变化指数的波动较小,规模效率变化对碳排放效率动态变化的作用不明显。通过区域合作和跨区域合作,提高强脱钩城市、弱脱钩城市的规模效率,促进扩张耦合城市、扩张负脱钩城市的技术进步,对中国城市实现碳排放效率的逐年增长具有重要意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Carbon emission is closely related to economic development,and how to achieve economic decarbonization has become one of the key issues urgently needed to be solved on the road of carbon peak and carbon neutral development in China.The decoupling effect of economic development and carbon emissions is an important indicator to measure the level of economic decarbonization.For the decoupling effect about China,scholars mostly studied it from the national level or provincial level and analyzed the driving factors indirectly,the cities’ decoupling effect and its influencing factors are not clear yet.In addition,the carbon emissions related with social and economic activities mainly come from the production process,while the carbon emission efficiency is an indicator to reflect the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions by taking the production process into consideration.Improving the carbon emission efficiency is an important way to promote economic decarbonization.For the carbon emission efficiency about China,several scholars have studied its deferences among cities with different geographical location,economic development level,urbanization level and so on,lacking of the research that combining decoupling effect to carbon efficiency.The carbon emission efficiency of Chinese cities and how to improve it are not yet clear.Therefore,by taking 284 cities in China as the research object,this dissertation researched the decoupling effect and carbon emission efficiency from the city-level to advance economic decarbonization.The main contents and results are as follows:(1)Based on Tapio decoupling theory,the decoupling effect of carbon emissions from economic growth was analyzed at China’s city?level,finding that strong decoupling,weak decoupling,expansion coupling and expansion negative decoupling were the main decoupling status for Chinese cities.Then the driving factors of decoupling effect were studied directly by decomposing the decoupling effect with LMDI decomposition method.The results showed that energy structure and energy intensity were the main reasons for the difference of decoupling effect among cities with different decoupling status.Improving efficiency to optimize energy structure and reduce energy intensity is crucial to promote the decoupling between economic development and carbon emissions.(2)Using the super-efficiency SBM-DEA model,this dissertation analyzed the carbon emission efficiency of Chinese cities from a static perspective.The results showed that carbon emission efficiency level of Chinese cities was mainly concentrated in the range of 0.2 to 0.6,and strong decoupling cities were most likely to reach the effective level.Secondly,this dissertation divided Chinese cities into strong decoupling cities,weak decoupling cities,expansion coupled cities and expansion negative decoupling cities based on decoupling effect,and then studied the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency of those kinds of cities,respectively.The results showed that economic development level and population size were the main factors to improve the carbon emission efficiency,public transport facility was the main factor to reduce the carbon emission efficiency,while industrial structure,consumption tendency and foreign direct investment were the main factors that leading to the difference of carbon emission efficiency of cities with different decoupling status.Developing green economy and providing population quality are important ways to improve the carbon emission efficiency of Chinese cities.(3)Using the DEA-Malmquist index model,this dissertation studies the dynamic changes of carbon emission efficiency of Chinese cities,from the dynamic perspective,finding that the carbon emission efficiency index of Chinese cities showed an overall trend of growth,and the number of cities with increasing carbon emission efficiency year by year kept increasing.In addition,combined with decoupling effect,the driving factors of dynamic change of carbon emission efficiency were studied by decomposition analysis method.The results showed that technological change and pure technological efficiency change can inhibit and promote the growth of carbon emission efficiency respectively,and they were the main factors for the difference of carbon emission efficiency index between strong decoupling cities and expansion negative decoupling cities.The mean fluctuation of scale efficiency change index was small,and its effect on dynamic change of carbon emission efficiency was not obvious.Promoting regional and trans-regional cooperation,to improve the scale efficiency of strong decoupling cities and weak decoupling cities,and advance the technological progress of expanding coupled cities and expanding negative decoupling cities,is of great significance to realize the year-by-year increase of carbon emission efficiency of Chinese cities.更多还原