【作者】 杨涛；

【导师】 张于峰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 建筑学， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 土地承载着城市各种生产生活生态活动,温室气体的排放、城镇化的扩张、经济的发展、资源的消耗等都与土地利用有着紧密的联系。本文在综合土地利用碳排放的有关文献的基础上,对天津市城市各类土地的能源碳排放进行了测算与分析,计算了 2002-2020年天津市土地利用碳排放量、碳汇量和碳排放强度,并对其进行LMDI因素分解分析、STIRPAT影响因素分析和Tapio弹性脱钩分析,在此基础上建立城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型,从系统角度分析城市人口、资本、土地、能源等投入,GDP、碳排放等产出之间的关系,通过系统模型模拟分析天津市土地利用碳排放各子系统的变化和可能的调控,深入研究城市人口、经济、能源、土地利用与碳排放系统之间的联系以及运行机理,进而提出符合城市可持续发展的土地利用碳减排的相关对策。研究的主要内容如下:(1)根据土地利用碳减排的实际需求提出了研究议题,并对国内外有关研究文献进行了综述,对相关的研究观点、研究方法、研究结论进行了归纳,进而提出现有研究的不足——对于城市社会经济与土地利用碳排放的系统分析,各影响因子相互作用机理的研究还有待加强。(2)按照现行理论和实践的需求,界定了土地利用能源碳排放、碳源碳汇、能源消耗、碳排放强度以及低碳土地利用的概念,并梳理了可持续发展理论、低碳经济理论、“能源-环境-经济”理论以及低碳土地利用理论,为本文的研究奠定理论基础。(3)根据不同土地类型分别计算了天津市土地利用碳排放量以及碳汇量,之后得到土地利用净碳排放量,在此基础上,以人口、经济、能源、土地利用为影响因素,分别运用LMDI因素分解分析、STIRPAT影响因素分析和Tapio弹性脱钩分析影响天津市城市土地利用不同层面和类型的碳排放因素及其具体程度。(4)根据系统动力学的建模步骤,确定了模型的建模原则、建模目的以及系统边界,利用Vensim软件得到城市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型,绘制出城市土地利用碳排放系统的因果关系图和流量图。结合历史数据,构建出天津市土地利用碳排放系统动力学模型。通过模型检验和系统仿真,得到天津市城市碳排放特征和增长规律。(5)通过改变不同的调控参数,利用参数的不同组合,分别对经济、人口、能源、土地、环境这五个子系统的不同政策情景进行模拟和比较,然后将各个子系统不同方案进行归纳比较,分析不同调控参数模拟的排放特征,对系统进行综合调整政策模拟,找到既能保障天津市经济稳健增长,又能实现《天津市十三五温室气体减排方案》中设定的2025年碳排放达峰目标的模拟方案,为天津市土地低碳利用的实现提供决策参考和研究支持。(6)根据前述的天津市土地利用碳排放LMDI因素分解分析、STIRPAT影响因素分析和Tapio弹性脱钩分析,以及系统动力学模拟仿真研究成果,在归纳总结天津市近期节能减排相关政策实践基础上,提出仅依靠控制能源消费,不能完全实现碳减排目标,应以“经济-社会-能源-土地-环境”系统角度,从经济系统、人口系统、土地系统、能源系统以及环境系统这五个方面提出了符合天津市社会经济发展的土地利用碳减排对策与建议。(7)结论和讨论,对全文进行了总结,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land carries all kinds of city production and living activities.Greenhouse gas emissions,urbanization expansion,economic development,resource consumption and so on are closely related to land use..This paper integrates and measures the carbon emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources of different types of urban land use,and analyzes the land use carbon emissions,carbon sinks and carbon emissions intensity during 2002-2020 in Tianjin,as well as studying the decomposition research of the impact factors.The analysis research leads to the result of the change of land use carbon emissions in Tianjin and the role of its regulating and controlling factors,Then the system model simulation method is applied to analyze changes and possible regulation of each subsystem of land use carbon emissions system in Tianjin.By further studying the connection and running mechanism between system of urban economy,land use and carbon emissions,this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions to reduce land use carbon emissions in line with the need of city’s sustainable development.The main content of this research are as follows:(1)According to the actual needs of land use carbon emission reduction,the research topic is put forward,and the relevant research literature at home and abroad is reviewed,and the relevant research viewpoints,research methods and research conclusions are summarized,and then the deficiencies of the existing research are put forward.——For the systematic analysis of urban social economy and land use carbon emissions,the research on the interaction mechanism of each influencing factor needs to be strengthened.(2)In accordance with current theoretical and practical needs,this paper gives a definition to land use/cover change,land use carbon emissions,carbon source and carbon sink and carbon storage,energy consumption and low-carbon land use,meanwhile combs the sustainable theory,man-land relationship theory,system science theory and optional land allocation theory,which laid the theoretical foundation for this research.(3)The land use carbon emissions and sinks of Tianjin were measured to obtain the net carbon emissions according to the different land use types.Overall,the land use carbon emissions rose year by year,which increased from million tons to million tons between 2002 and 2020,with average growth rate per annum.Both the per unit land area of carbon emission intensity and per capital carbon emission intensity are increasing yearly.(4)According to the modeling steps of system dynamics,we determine the principle,purpose and system boundary of the model,and divide the system into five subsystems,which including Land Subsystem,Economic Subsystem,Population Subsystem,Energy Subsystem,and Environment Subsystem.Then,according to the relationship between the five subsystems and the feedback relationship among the variables,the Vensim software was used to establish the system dynamic model of the urban land use carbon emission,further to obtain the causal relationship diagram and flow chart of the urban land use carbon emission.(5)Based on the socio-economic historical data and the actual development situation of Tianjin,the relevant parameters and equations of the system dynamics model of land use carbon emission in Tianjin were determined to obtain the dynamic system model of land use carbon emission.And then test the model by visual and operational tests,historical tests and sensitivity analysis,which the results show that the model has good stability,and can be used to simulate the actual system.(6)According to the results of Tianjin urban land use carbon emission system dynamics simulation research which is introduced previously,combined with the actual situation of Tianjin’s economic and social development,countermeasures and suggestions on land use carbon emission reduction are presented.Those advices are given from the aspect of the economic system,population system,land system,energy system and environmental system.更多还原