【作者】 陈果；

【导师】 张建清；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 世界经济， 2021， 博士

【摘要】 中国制造业的迅速发展与深入参与全球价值链分工密切相关。通过参与全球价值链分工,中国逐渐成为“世界工厂”和全球制造业重心,国内制造业生产技术得到了显著提升。但随着经济全球化和全球价值链分工的不断深化,各国经济发展不平衡日益加剧,生产要素在全球范围内的正常流动在多个环节受阻,原有的全球供需格局也面临着大幅度调整。全球价值链分工逆向发展,同时区域化、国内化趋势日益显现,国内人口红利消失,均给中国制造业发展带来了深远影响。在这一背景下,中国利用传统资源禀赋优势参与国际分工的空间越来越小,亟需重新审视价值链分工新趋势,精准把握国内经济发展新需求,深入调整制造业升级优化路径,摆脱价值链低端锁定陷阱,实现向高端突破和跃迁。因此,本文从中观行业层面和微观企业层面的双重视角出发,深入探讨了全球、区域、国内三种价值链嵌入模式对中国制造业生产率增长的具体影响,以及在不同技术类别和不同地区中影响的差异性。本文利用WIOD投入产出表、中国区域间投入产出表对中国制造业全球、区域、国内价值链的嵌入程度进行测算,并根据测算结果梳理分析了中国制造业嵌入三种价值链分工模式的时间、行业、区域特征。然后,采用中国工业统计年鉴、中国工业企业数据库、中国统计年鉴相关数据对中国制造业的行业全要素生产率和企业全要素生产率进行测算,并根据测算结果梳理分析了中国制造业生产率增长的时间、行业、地区特征。最后,分别对三种不同模式的价值链嵌入程度和制造业生产率增长相关性进行描述性统计分析,发现价值链嵌入与制造业生产率之间并未呈现出明显的线性相关关系。为揭示全球价值链嵌入对中国制造业生产率增长的具体影响,本文选择了中观行业层面和微观企业层面的双重视角,基于17个制造业的2000-2014年行业数据和2000-2007年企业数据,运用固定效应模型进行了实证分析。结果表明:从行业层面和企业层面总体来看,全球价值链嵌入对中国制造业全要素生产率增长存在明显的倒“U”型非线性关系,即“低端锁定”效应,在全球价值链嵌入初期,制造业TFP不断上升,在达到“阈值”之后,TFP开始下降,全球价值链嵌入度的加深反而抑制了国内制造业技术进步;从不同技术类别来看,全球价值链嵌入对中国制造业全要素生产率增长的倒“U”型效应主要来源于低技术行业,在中低技术行业并不明显,在高技术制造业则存在着明显的正“U”型效应;从不同地区来看,全球价值链嵌入对中国制造业全要素生产率增长的倒“U”型效应在中部和西部地区更为明显,在东部地区则并不明显,以正向作用为主。为揭示区域价值链嵌入对中国制造业生产率增长的具体影响,本文同样从行业层面和企业层面出发,基于17个制造业的2000-2014年行业数据和2000-2007年企业数据,运用固定效应模型进行了实证分析。结果表明:从行业层面和企业层面总体来看,北美、欧盟区域价值链嵌入对制造业行业全要素生产率增长的影响均呈现明显的倒“U”型,东亚区域价值链嵌入对制造业行业全要素生产率增长的影响以正向促进作用为主,北美、欧盟、东大三大区域价值链嵌入对企业全要素生产率增长则均存在明显的倒“U”型非线性关系;从不同技术类别来看,在高技术制造业中,北美、欧盟、东亚三大区域价值链嵌入与中国制造业行业全要素生产率和企业全要素生产率增长的关系均呈现出明显的倒“U”型效应,在低技术和中低技术行业中,三大区域价值链之间则存在一定差别;从不同地区来看,北美、欧盟两大区域价值链嵌入与国内东部、中部、西部制造业企业生产率增长之间呈现出明显的倒“U”型效应,但对于东亚区域价值嵌入而言,倒“U”型效应仅在东部和西部企业有明显体现,对于中部制造业企业则呈现出明显的负向作用。为揭示国内价值链嵌入对中国制造业生产率增长的具体影响,本文同样运用固定效应模型,从行业层面和企业层面进行了双重实证检验。结果表明:国内价值链嵌入抑制了制造业行业生产率增长,对制造业企业生产率增长的影响则是前期抑制、后期促进、呈现正“U”型,行业层面与企业层面的影响存在差异,随着国内价值链嵌入度的加深,企业生产率增长得到了更明显改善,这可能由于当前国内价值链分工的发育仍不完善,产业集中度比较低、企业规模不够大,所产生的行业规模经济效应和资源优化整合效应仍然较小;从不同技术类别来看,国内价值链嵌入对国内制造业行业生产率的抑制作用主要来源于低技术行业,在中低技术行业和高技术行业并不明显,国内价值链嵌入抑制了低技术企业生产率的增长,对中低技术企业生产率的影响是先减后增,呈现正“U”型,对高技术企业生产率的影响则是显著地正向促进;从不同地区来看,国内价值链嵌入对国内制造业行业生产率的抑制作用主要集中在东部地区,对中部和西部地区影响并不明显,对东部制造业企业生产率增长呈现正“U”型效应,对中部、西部制造业企业生产率增长则呈现倒“U”型效应。此外,结合以上结论和当前中国面临的国际经贸格局和内在经济发展要求,本文分别从有效参与全球价值链分工、区域价值链分工、国内价值链分工和推动“三链”重构融合提出相关的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid development of Chinese manufacturing industry is closely related to China’s great involvement in the division of labor across global value chain.China as at today,has gradually become the "world production factory" and the center of gravity of the global manufacturing industry through deep participation in the division of labor across global value chain.Its domestic manufacturing production technology has also been improved significantly.However,with the continuous economic globalization increase and division of labor across global value chain,the economic imbalance in various countries has been increasing,and the normal flow of production factors on a global scale has also been blocked in multiple links.Consequently,the original global supply and demand pattern is also facing substantial adjustments.The trend of regionalization and domesticization of the division of labor in the value chain has become increasingly apparent,and as a result,the disappearance of the domestic demographic dividend has brought a profound impact on the development of China’s manufacturing industries.In this context,China has lesser room for taking advantage of its traditional resource endowments to participate in the division of labor across global value chain.It is very urgent to re-examine the new trend of the division of labor in the value chain,accurately grasp the new needs of domestic economic development,and in-depth adjustment of the manufacturing upgrade and optimization path.Get rid of the trap of locking at the low end of the value chain,and achieve a breakthrough and transition to the high-end.Based on this research,the purpose of this dissertation starts from the dual perspectives of the meso-industry level and the micro-enterprise level,and delves into the study of a different value chain embedding models.For example,the specific impact of participating in the global,regional,and domestic value chain division of labor on China’s manufacturing productivity growth,and the difference between the former three,and latter in different categories of technologies and different regions.This dissertation uses the WIOD input-output table and China’s inter-regional input-output table to estimate the degree of embeddedness of China’s manufacturing global,regional,and domestic value chains.Based on calculation results,this dissertation analyzes especially,the time,industry,and regional characteristics of China’s manufacturing industry participation in three modes of division of labor in the value chain.Consequently,using China’s Industrial Statistical Yearbook,China’s Industrial Enterprise Database,and China’s Statistical Yearbook-related enterprise data to evaluate the total industrial productivity factor and total enterprise productivity factor of China’s manufacturing industry,and also analyzing and combing its manufacturing productivity growth based on the calculated time results,industry,and regional characteristics.Lastly,a descriptive statistical analysis of the value chain embedding degree of three different models and correlation of the manufacturing productivity growth is also carried out.Hence,it was found there is no obvious linear correlation between the first three(3)and the latter.To reveal the specific impact of global value chain embedding system on China’s manufacturing productivity growth,this dissertation chooses and makes use of the dual perspectives of the meso-industry level and the micro-enterprise level,using the industry data of seventeen(17)manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2014 and the enterprise data from 2000 to 2007,and conducted an empirical analysis on them.From the results obtained,it is evident to say that;from the industry level and the enterprise level,there is an obvious inverted "U"-shaped nonlinear relationship between global value chain embedding,and China’s manufacturing total productivity growth factor(i.e.,the "low-end lock-in" effect),which was embedded in the global value chain.Moreover,In the initial stage,manufacturing of TFP continued to rise.Then,after reaching the "threshold",TFP began to decline rapidly.The increase of global value chain embedding actually inhibited the technological progress of domestic manufacturing.From different perspective of technology categories,global value chain embedding has a great impact on China’s manufacturing industry.The inverted "U" effect of total productivity growth factor mainly comes from low-tech industries.It is not obvious in low-to-medium-tech industries,and there is an obvious positive "U" effect in high-tech manufacturing.Additionally,From different regions,the inverted U-shaped effect of global value chain embedding on the total productivity growth factor of China’s manufacturing industry,(i.e.,the "low-end lock-in" effect)is more obvious especially,in the central and western regions,but not obvious in the eastern region,and it is mainly positive.To reveal the specific impact of the regional value chain embedding on the productivity growth of China’s manufacturing industry,this dissertation also starts from the industry level and the enterprise level,using industry data from 2000 to 2014 and enterprise data from 2000 to 2007 for the empirical analysis of 17 manufacturing industries.The obtained results show that,from the industry level and the enterprise level,the value chain embedding system in North America and the European Union has an obviously inverted "U"-shaped non-linear relationship to the total productivity growth factor of the manufacturing industry.The impact of Eastern Asia regional value chain embedding on the total productivity growth factor of the manufacturing industry is mainly positive.The value chain embeddings in three major regions of North America,European Union and Eastern University all have an obvious inverted"U"-shaped nonlinear relationship with the growth total enterprise productivity factor from different categories of technologies,and high-tech manufacturing.However,the relationship between the value chain embedding system in three major regions of North America,the European Union,and East Asia and the total productivity factor of China’s manufacturing industry and enterprise all show an obvious inverted U-shaped effect,in low-tech and low-to-medium-tech industries.Additionally,there is a certain difference between the three major regional value chains from different regions,between the regionals value chain embedding system of North America,and the European Union,and the productivity growth of domestic manufacturing enterprises in the eastern,central,and western regions.It equally shows an obvious inverted "U"effect,but for the embedding value in East Asia,the inverted "U" effect is only evident,especially in the eastern and western enterprises,and it also has an obvious negative effect on the central manufacturing enterprises.Furthermore,to reveal the specific impact of domestic value chain embedding on the productivity growth of China’s manufacturing industry,this dissertation also carried out a double empirical test from the industry level and the enterprise level.The results obtained from these tests show that the impact of domestic value chain embedding on the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry is significantly negative,and the impact on the productivity growth of manufacturing enterprises is obviously positive "U".However,there are many differences between the industry level and the enterprise level.With the continuous increase of value chain embeddedness,corporate productivity growth has improved significantly.This may be as a result of the current domestic value chain division of labor that still needs to be improved.Generally,the overall development is immature,the industry concentration is relatively low,the size of the enterprise is not large enough,and the resulting industry scale economy effect,and resource optimization integration effect are also still small.Moreover,from the perspective of different categories of technologies,the inhibitory effect of domestic value chain embedding on the productivity of domestic manufacturing industries mainly comes from low-tech industries,which are not obvious in low and medium-tech industries and high-tech industries.The domestic value chain embedding inhibits the productivity growth of low-tech enterprises.However,the impact on the productivity of low-to-medium-tech enterprises first decreases,and then increases,thereby showing a positive "U" shape.The impact on the productivity of high-tech enterprises is significantly positive;from different regions,the inhibitory effect of domestic value chain embedding on the productivity of domestic manufacturing industries is mainly concentrated in the eastern region,and the impact on the central and western regions are not obvious.It equally has a positive U-shaped effect on the productivity growth of eastern manufacturing enterprises.The productivity growth of manufacturing enterprises in the central and western regions showed an inverted U-shaped effect.Finally,setting asides what we have achieved so far and combining the above conclusions with the current state of international economic and trade pattern,and China’s internal economic development requirements,this dissertation proposes some relevant policies from participating in the division of labor across global value chains,division of labor in regional value chains,division of labor in domestic value chains,and also promoting the integration of the "three chains".更多还原