【作者】 刘宇；

【导师】 石建勋；

【作者基本信息】 同济大学 ， 应用经济学， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 货币权力是大国实力的体现,只有强大的国家才能缔造强大的货币。作为货币权力最典型的体现,美元凭借着美国强大的综合国力确立了在国际货币体系中的主导地位,而美国有意识地利用美元的国际地位获得超额收益,使全球都在美元霸权的控制之下。作为崛起中的大国货币,人民币在国际中的地位却与中国的国家综合实力长期不匹配。追求人民币货币权力实现并非为追求霸权,而是抵御和制衡当前美元霸权横行的迫切需要。实现与中国国家实力相匹配的人民币货币权力是中国未来发展的重要环节。货币国际化进程与货币权力实现之间是何种关系?当前人民币国际化进程中的货币权力如何实现?这些问题不仅是重大的理论问题,也是当前需要认真解决的现实问题。将人民币国际化与人民币货币权力实现紧密结合,从货币权力实现的视角对未来中国进入高质量发展阶段人民币国际化的趋势进行深入研究分析。首先,从权力视角构建了货币权力实现的理论分析框架,对不同属性的货币权力加以区分判断,并对货币权力的来源、内涵、特征及表现进行阐述和分析,在以美元霸权作为案例分析后提出人民币货币权力实现的必要性和紧迫性。其次,对影响货币权力实现的重要影响因素分为经济实力、金融实力、政治实力、军事实力和科技实力五个维度,选取8种主要世界货币及其发行国/地区代表国家实力的五个维度指标,分别构建代表货币职能的货币国际化指数以及代表权力体现的国家综合实力指数,寻找判断影响货币国际化的国家实力因素,并根据测算出的货币国际化指数和国家综合实力指数构建面板模型进行实证分析,对影响人民币国际化的国家综合实力因素加以判别并分析其影响机制。再次,构建结构方程模型对人民币货币权力指数进行测度,进一步分析人民币货币权力实现与人民币国际化之间的关系。通过模型参数构建人民币货币权力指数,对人民币国际化与人民币货币权力实现之间的关系进行进一步判断,发现人民币货币权力指数对人民币国际化指数具有良好的预测效果。最后,构建人民币货币权力实现的博弈模型,提出当前阶段人民币在国际货币体系中获得货币权力实现的占优策略。未来人民币货币权力实现的路径在于推进数字人民币国际化、扩大人民币货币职能以及提升国家综合实力,并提出促进人民币货币权力实现的相应对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Monetary power is a manifestation of the power of great powers,and only a powerful country can create a powerful currency.As the most typical manifestation of monetary power,the U.S.dollar has established its dominant position in the international monetary system by virtue of the strong comprehensive national power of the United States,and the U.S.has consciously used the international status of the U.S.dollar to obtain excess returns,making the world under the control of U.S.dollar hegemony.As a rising power,China’s international status has long been mismatched with China’s comprehensive national strength.Pursuing the realization of RMB monetary power is not to pursue hegemony,but to resist and balance the urgent need of the current dollar hegemony.Realizing the monetary power of RMB that matches China’s national strength is an important link in China’s future development.What is the relationship between the process of currency internationalization and the realization of monetary power? How to realize the monetary power in the current process of RMB internationalization? These issues are not only major theoretical issues,but also realistic issues that need to be resolved in earnest at present.The internationalization of the RMB is closely integrated with the realization of the RMB monetary power,and an in-depth study and analysis of the trend of the RMB internationalization in China entering a stage of high-quality development in the future will be conducted from the perspective of the realization of the monetary power.First,build a theoretical analysis framework for the realization of monetary power from the perspective of power,distinguish and judge different attributes of monetary power,and explain and analyze the source,connotation,characteristics and performance of monetary power.After analyzing the hegemony of the US dollar as a case study put forward the necessity and urgency of realizing the power of RMB currency;Second,the important factors affecting the realization of monetary power are divided into five dimensions: economic strength,financial strength,political strength,military strength,and technological strength.Select 8 major world currencies and their issuing countries/regions to represent the five dimensional indicators of national strength,respectively construct a currency internationalization index representing currency functions and a country’s comprehensive strength index represented by power,and look for factors affecting currency internationalization.According to the calculated currency internationalization index and the country’s comprehensive strength index,we will construct a panel model for empirical analysis,identify the country’s comprehensive strength factors that affect the internationalization of the RMB,and analyze its influence mechanism;Third,construct a structural equation model to measure the RMB monetary power index,and further analyze the relationship between the realization of RMB monetary power and the internationalization of the RMB.Construct the RMB Monetary Power Index through model parameters,further judge the relationship between RMB internationalization and the realization of RMB monetary power,and find that the RMB Monetary Power Index has a good predictive effect on the RMB internationalization index;Finally,it constructs a game model for the realization of the monetary power of the RMB,and proposes the dominant strategy for the realization of the monetary power of the RMB in the international monetary system at the current stage.The path to realize RMB monetary power in the future is to promote the internationalization of the Digital RMB,expand the functions of the RMB currency,and enhance the country’s comprehensive strength,and propose corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the realization of the RMB monetary power.更多还原