【作者】 陈鲲玲；

【导师】 陈彤；

【作者基本信息】 新疆农业大学 ， 农林经济管理， 2023， 博士

【摘要】 贫困是一个社会发展问题,只要社会分层存在,贫困问题就会存在。2020年,在现行标准下,我国已经全部解决农村绝对贫困问题,但是相对贫困问题依然存在,没有随着绝对贫困问题的解决而随之消弭,尤其是生态环境脆弱性对贫困地区的影响依然存在,并以生态贫困这一相对贫困特殊类型持续存在。2022年,中央一号文件明确指出,当前农村工作的底线之一是不发生规模性返贫,巩固脱贫成效,推动乡村振兴取得新进展。因此,贫困领域的理论与实践,依然是“三农”问题研究的重点之一。鉴于贫困治理在乡村振兴中的重要地位,探究影响生态贫困的因素和作用机理,通过对这些影响因素的分析,提出有效的机制和方法以提高贫困治理效率并防范发生规模性返贫,有助于乡村振兴战略扎实推进。本研究对“贫困的恶性循环理论”“生态脆弱性理论”“可持续发展理论”“农业生态经济学理论”等理论进行回顾和分析的基础上,在对有关生态环境与贫困的关系及其影响因素进行文献梳理后,构建生态贫困分析框架进行深入研究。应用excel2010、stata15.0软件对研究数据进行了统计描述、相关分析,从生态环境资源微观层面挖掘影响农民收入和区域经济社会发展的因素和作用机理,系统探讨并回答如下三方面的问题∶第一,不同程度、不同地域的生态环境对贫困的影响有多深?第二,众多生态环境因素中对贫困有显著影响作用的有哪些?第三,固定资产投入、产业结构调整、公共服务能力提升以及人力资本提高等外部作用能够在多大程度上缓解生态环境对农村发展的约束?通过理论分析和实证研究,得出如下结论:(1)生态贫困是在地理与贫困、环境与贫困、人地理论多学科研究的基础上认识深化的问题。应当把人地系统理论与可持续发展原理结合起来研究生态贫困问题,集“生态”“经济”“社会”三要素为一体系统认识。因而,构建生态(E)-经济(E)-社会(S)分析框架能够更为全面、深入研究生态贫困问题。研究认为,生态贫困的复杂性在于生态环境的不平衡引起经济社会发展的不平衡,其逻辑关系是“生态”禀赋不足引起经济社会的发展滞后进而最终导致“人”处于相对贫困的一种发展状态。(2)以新疆南疆四地州33个县(市)为研究样本,构建生态、经济、社会耦合模型。研究发现,生态环境的优劣与农民收入、区域经济社会综合发展状况均有着直接关系,生态环境的脆弱程度越深,区域的经济社会发展越是滞后。并且,由于生态环境的差异性,区域生态贫困也具有明显的空间特征。从南疆四地州33个县(市)实证结果看,生态贫困呈现出“离散型分布”与“聚集性分布”相结合的一种分布状态,具有“大分散、小聚集”“北轻南重、东重西轻”的空间分异特点。(3)在生态贫困时空分异特征科学认识的基础上,对这一动态变迁的原因进一步进行分析。通过构建OLS回归模型,研究发现,良好的农业生产条件,诸如无霜期长短、土地资源的多寡、农村人口密度的大小均对农民人均纯收入有着显著的影响。植被覆盖度对农业的影响主要通过对土壤的影响,进而影响农业生产状况。气温、人口密度、人均耕地、水资源以及自然灾害都对农民收入有显著的影响。通过分位数模型进一步研究发现,这些生态因素直接影响农业生产条件,对低收入农民的影响尤其显著,这说明南疆四地州农民收入高度依赖于第一产业,对生态因素尤其敏感。地形起伏、离市场的距离在0.1%、1%、5%的水平上均不显著。分析认为,南疆四地州市场化程度比较低,仍然处于相对封闭的“农业孤岛”状况,没有渗透到周边比较大的市场中,同时也说明周边的市场对农村的带动能力相对较差。对社会经济发展综合指数的影响除了土地、水、自然灾害等因素之外,地理区位、市场距离的影响显著。(4)基于罗莫和卢卡斯内生经济理论分析,以生态资源容量为内生变量,农业投资、人力资本、产业结构调整、交通通达性作为外生变量构建内生经济增长模型,研究发现,农民收入、经济社会发展水平在生态环境约束下,会随着外部要素供给的增加,约束力度逐渐变弱,在农民收入回归分析中,生态环境的影响呈现出“U”变动趋势,对经济社会发展的影响呈斜线“”趋势,影响程度逐渐变小。再次证实生态环境约束的客观存在现实,但是在外源性输入的情况下,其约束作用逐渐弱化。从具体外部输入因素的显著性程度看,人力资本提升的影响最为明显,其次是交通通达性、农业固定资产投资和区域结构调整。(5)形成机理的分析为生态贫困的治理奠定了基础,生态贫困治理框架依然围绕生态、经济、社会协同发展提出,构建基于保护-发展-保障的生态贫困治理机制。研究认为,生态环境的保护和修复机制是生态贫困治理的根本,在认识完整的生态系统、连续的地理单元和经济社会发展可持续需求的基础上,对生态保护和修复进行系统规划;生态资源的资本化、发展生态经济是生态贫困治理的驱动力,体现“绿水青山就是金山银山”的绿色发展理念;协同治理、利益链联结制是生态贫困的基础,通过协作机制避免治理过程中的“碎片化”现象,通过利益联结机制,促使生态产品市场化,惠及更多农户,促进区域经济社会综合发展;制度完善是生态贫困的保障机制。最后,基于“山水林田湖草沙”的系统发展思路,围绕生态环境治理、发展生态经济、加强资源整合、完善制度建设、提升个人资本等方面,提出新疆南疆四地州生态贫困治理的对策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Poverty is a social development issue,and will remain a problem as long as social stratification exists.China completely solved the problem of absolute poverty in rural areas in2020 under the current standards,but the relative poverty remains and does not disappear with absolute poverty eliminated.In particular,the impact of ecological vulnerability in poor areas still remains as a special type of relative poverty.The No.1 Central Document of 2022 clearly states that one of the bottom lines of the current rural work is to forestall a large-scale reemergence of poverty,to consolidate the results of poverty eradication and to promote new progress in rural revitalization.Therefore,theoretical and practical research in the field of poverty remains a focus in the issues relating to "Agriculture,Rural Areas & Rural People".In view of the importance of poverty governance in rural revitalization,it is important to explore the factors and mechanisms affecting ecological poverty,and through the analysis of these influencing factors,adopt effective mechanisms and methods to improve the efficiency of poverty governance and forestall a large-scale reemergence of poverty,so as to promote the rural revitalization strategy.On the basis of the review and analysis of such theories as "the vicious circle theory of poverty","ecological vulnerability theory","sustainable development theory" and "agroeconomics theory",as well as the literature on the relationship between ecological environment and poverty and its influencing factors,this study constructs an ecological poverty analysis framework for in-depth research.Excel2010 and stata15.0software was used for statistical descriptions and correlation analyses of the research data to explore the factors and mechanisms affecting farmers’ income and regional economic and social development at the micro level of ecological resources,and to systematically explore and answer the following three questions: firstly,what are the constraints of ecological environment in different regions and at different degrees on poverty? Secondly,which of the many ecological factors in a region have a more significant constraining effect? Thirdly,how and to what extent can the external effects such as the adjustment of socio-economic development policies,the investment in fixed assets and the improvement of public service capacity alleviate the constraints of the ecological environment on rural socio-economic development?The theoretical analysis and empirical study led to the following conclusions:(1)Ecological poverty is an issue that has been deepened in understanding on the basis of multidisciplinary research on geography and poverty,environment and poverty,and human-earth theory.Ecological poverty should be studied by combining human-earth systems theory and the principles of sustainable development,and by integrating the three elements of "environment","economy" and "society" into a systematic understanding.Thus,an analytical framework of natural environment(E)-economy(E)-society(S)can be constructed to study ecological poverty in a more comprehensive and in-depth manner.The study concludes that the complexity of ecological poverty lies in the fact that the imbalance of the ecological environment causes the imbalance of economic and social development,and the logical relationship is that the lack of endowment of the "ecological environment" causes the lag of economic and social development,which ultimately leads to a state of relative poverty.(2)33 counties and cities in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang were taken as research samples for constructing a model of coupling environment,economy and society,and findings showed that the advantages and disadvantages of the natural environment are directly related to farmers’ income and the comprehensive economic and social development of the region.The more fragile the natural environment is,the more the economic and social development of the region lags behind.Moreover,with the spatial distribution difference of natural environment,regional ecological poverty also shows obvious spatial characteristics.According to the empirical results of 33 counties and cities in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang,ecological poverty shows a combination of "discrete distribution" and "aggregated distribution",with a spatial heterogeneity characterized by "mild in the north and severe in the south,severe in the east and mild in the west".(3)Based on a scientific understanding of the spatial-temporal variation of ecological poverty,the causes of this dynamic change were further analyzed by constructing an OLS regression model,which found that good agricultural production conditions,such as the length of the frost-free period,the amount of land resources and the density of rural population,all contribute significantly to farmers’ net income per capita.The impact of vegetation cover on agriculture is mainly through its effect on the soil,which in turn affects agricultural production conditions.Temperature,population density,arable land per capita,water resources and natural disasters all have a significant effect on farmers’ income.In particular,the quantile model found that these ecological factors directly affect agricultural production conditions and have a particularly significant impact on low-income farmers,suggesting that farmers’ incomes in the four southern-Xinjiang prefectures are highly dependent on agriculture and particularly sensitive to ecological factors.Topographical relief and distance from markets were not significant at the 0.1%,1% and 5% levels.The analysis suggests that these four southern prefectures have a relatively low degree of marketisation and remain relatively closed "agricultural islands",not yet penetrating into the larger surrounding markets,and also indicating that the surrounding markets are less able to drive the countryside.The comprehensive index of socio-economic development is significantly influenced by geographical location and distance to markets,in addition to factors such as land,water and natural disasters.(4)Based on the analysis of Paul Romer and Robert Lucas Endogenous Growth Theory,the endogenous economic growth model was constructed with ecological resource capacity as the endogenous variable and agricultural investment,human capital,industrial restructuring and transport accessibility as the exogenous variables.The study finds that the constraints of the ecological environment on farmers’ income and level of economic and social development will gradually become weaker with the increase of external factor supply.In the regression analysis of farmers’ income,the impact of the ecological environment shows a "U" trend,and the impact on economic and social development shows a diagonal "" trend,and the degree of impact gradually decreases.Again,it is confirmed that the existence of eco-environmental constraints,but in the case of exogenous input,such constraint effects are gradually weakened.From the significance of specific external input factors,the impact of human capital improvement is the most pronounced,followed by traffic accessibility,agricultural fixed asset investment and regional restructuring.(5)The analysis of the formation mechanism has laid the foundation for the governance of ecological poverty.The governance framework of ecological poverty still focuses on the coordinated development of environment,economy and society,and an ecological poverty governance mechanism is constructed on the basis of protection – development-safeguard.The research shows that the protection and restoration mechanism of ecological environment is the foundation of ecological poverty governance.On the basis of understanding the complete ecosystem,continuous geographical units and the sustainable needs of economic and social development,we should make a systematic planning for ecological protection and restoration;The capitalization of ecological resources and the development of ecological economy are the driving forces of ecological poverty governance,reflecting the original intention of green development of "Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets";The basis of ecological poverty is collaborative governance and the linkage of interest chains,which avoid fragmentation in the process of governance through collaborative mechanisms and promote the marketisation of ecological products to benefit more farmers and promote comprehensive regional economic and social development through the linkage of interests.Institutional improvement is a safeguard mechanism for ecological poverty.Finally,based on the systematic development idea of "mountains,water,forests,fields,lakes,grasses and sands",countermeasures and suggestions for the governance of ecological poverty in the four southern-Xinjiang prefectures are proposed in terms of managing the environment,developing ecological economy,strengthening resource integration,improving institutional construction and enhancing personal capital.更多还原