【作者】 刘杰；

【导师】 於世为；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 伴随着经济高速发展和能源消费量增长,我国的气候变化威胁日益严重。在过去的十年中,能源结构加速清洁转型,可再生能源对化石燃料能源的替代也在增加。然而,我国的可再生能源应用和扩散仍然面临一些挑战。由于缺乏创新和自主研发能力,国内企业依赖从国外引进可再生能源的关键技术。虽然可再生能源发电能力快速增长,但是由于缺乏配套储能设施或者连接发电厂的电网,导致严重的弃电现象。可再生能源电力的间歇性、波动性和随机性特征决定了其具有更低的运行效率,这削弱了可再生能源满足总体能源需求的贡献。在上述研究背景下,我们致力于解决以下关键问题:(1)如何通过更加客观的分配网络数据包络分析模型(DEA)的权重和处理非期望产出,科学地测算可再生能源效率?(2)区域可再生能源效率是否存在收敛趋势?(3)加强区域合作和降低经济发展不平衡是否促进了区域可再生能源效率收敛?(4)可再生能源效率改善是否显著有助于实现碳中和?(5)在不同经济发展水平下,可再生能源效率是否对碳中和有异质性影响?(6)区域可再生能源效率收敛是否显著有助于实现碳中和?为了解决上述问题,本文基于可持续发展理论和低碳发展理论,构建了“经济-社会-环境”循环系统,并且提出一种新的考虑非期望产出的网络DEA模型测度可再生能源效率。我们还分析了可再生能源效率在全国和东中西部地区的收敛趋势变化,以及不同的区域合作机制和经济发展水平对可再生能源效率收敛性的影响。然后,研究揭示了可再生能源效率对碳中和的影响机制。在此基础上,本文检验了可再生能源效率收敛性对碳中和的关联影响,并且提出了改善可再生能源效率和降低碳排放的合理建议。通过上述理论机制和实证分析发现:(1)2005年至2019年30省份的可再生能源效率水平较低,平均为0.504。大部分省份的可再生能源效率位于0.2至0.5的范围内。共计有15个省份的可再生能源效率得到提高,平均增长19.7%,其它13个省份的可再生能源效率出现下降,平均降低21.4%;此外,两个省份的可再生能源效率增长率为0。(2)全国范围内普遍存在可再生能源效率收敛的趋势。从长远来看,落后省份的可再生能源效率正在追赶先进省份。经济发展显著降低了可再生能源效率收敛,而且其在高收入地区的影响比全国平均水平更大。区域合作机制有助于推动东部和西部地区的可再生能源效率收敛,但是对中部地区没有显著影响。(3)在更高的经济发展水平下,可再生能源效率促进碳中和的贡献更大。具体而言,随着人均GDP超过4.4万元的门槛值时,可再生能源效率显著降低了净碳排放量,有助于实现碳中和。在地区层级,可再生能源效率对碳中和的贡献也不尽相同。当东部地区和中西部地区的人均GDP分别超过2.5万元和6.1万元后,可再生能源效率改善有助于实现碳中和。(4)净碳排放增量与可再生能源效率收敛系数的灰色关联度高于净碳排放量,关系更加紧密。2011年之后的可再生能源效率发散趋势显著促进了净碳排放量增长,不利于实现碳中和。本文对现有文献的主要贡献体现在以下三个方面:首先,我们使用考虑多投入多产出的“经济-社会-环境”循环系统评估我国30个省份的可再生能源效率;提出一个新的考虑非期望产出的网络DEA模型,以测度循环系统的可再生能源效率;基于每个子系统的投入相对缩减率与总相对投入缩减率,确定一种分配网络DEA模型权重的新方法。其次,研究在更加全面的空间尺度上考察了全国以及东、中、西部地区的可再生能源效率收敛性,并且专门探讨了经济危机的影响。研究通过空间面板模型,比较了可再生能源收敛性的时间和空间分布差异。我们进一步基于政府提出的区域协调发展战略检验了区域合作机制和经济发展水平对区域可再生能源效率收敛性的影响。最后,本文从区域经济发展不平衡角度探讨了国家和地区层面的可再生能源效率对实现碳中和的影响机制。在一定程度上拓展了可再生能源效率在不同经济区域的影响差异研究。我们通过部分线性函数系数面板数据模型揭示了可再生能源效率的异质性影响,以及在不同经济发展水平下,可再生能源效率与碳中和之间的非线性关系。与传统的参数模型相比,提出的方法将可再生能源效率的影响视为经济发展的非参数函数,并且提供了特定省份的可再生能源效率函数系数的显著性和大小。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the rapid economic development and the growth of energy consumption,the threat of climate change has become increasingly serious China.The last decade has seen an increase in the substitution of renewable energy sources for fossil fuel energy due to the clean energy transition.However,the development of renewable energy still faces many challenges that hinder its application and diffusion.Domestic enterprises lack innovation and independent research and development capabilities and mainly rely on importing key technologies of renewable energy from abroad.Despite the rapid growth of renewable power generation capacity,a large amount of renewable power is wasted directly due to the lack of energy storage facilities or the power grid connected to power plants.The intermittence,volatility and randomness of renewable energy power determine the lower operating efficiency,which weakens the contribution to meeting the overall energy demand.In the context of the above research,we aim to address the following key questions:(1)how to scientifically measure renewable energy efficiency by assigning objective weights to network data envelopment analysis models(DEA)and considering undesirable outputs ?(2)whether there is a convergence trend in regional renewable energy efficiency ?(3)does improving regional cooperation and reducing economic development imbalance promote regional renewable energy efficiency convergence ?(4)whether the improvement of renewable energy efficiency contributes significantly to achieving carbon neutrality ?(5)whether renewable energy efficiency has a heterogeneous impact on carbon neutrality under different levels of economic development ?(6)whether the convergence of regional renewable energy efficiency contributes significantly to achieving carbon neutrality ?In order to solve the above problems,we proposes a new network DEA model and constructs an "economic-social-environmental" cycle system to evaluate the efficiency of renewable energy based on sustainable development theory and low-carbon development theory.Next,we analyze the convergence trend of renewable energy efficiency across the overall country and different regions.The impact of regional cooperation mechanisms and economic development levels on the convergence trend is also discussed.Then,the study reveals the impact mechanism of renewable energy efficiency on carbon neutrality.On this basis,we examine the correlation between renewable energy efficiency convergence and carbon neutrality and puts forward policy suggestions for improving renewable energy efficiency and controlling carbon emissions.Through the above theoretical mechanism and empirical analysis,we find that:(1)the renewable energy efficiency level of 30 provinces is relatively low from 2005 to2019,with an average of 0.504.Renewable energy efficiency in most provinces ranges from 0.2 to 0.5.The renewable energy efficiency of 15 provinces has been improved,with an average increase of 19.7%,while that of the other 13 provinces has declined,with an average decrease of 21.4%.In addition,the growth rate of renewable energy efficiency in the two provinces is 0.(2)there is a general trend of renewable energy efficiency convergence across the country.In the long run,the renewable energy efficiency in the backward provinces is catching up with the advanced provinces.Economic development is not conducive to renewable energy efficiency convergence,and its impact is more prominent in high-income regions than in the national average level.The regional cooperation mechanism promotes the convergence of renewable energy efficiency in the eastern and western regions while it has no significant impact on the middle region.(3)renewable energy efficiency contributes more to carbon neutrality at a higher level of economic development.Specifically,when per capita GDP exceeds the threshold value of 4.365 thousand yuan,renewable energy efficiency significantly reduces net carbon emissions,which is conducive to carbon neutrality.The contribution of renewable energy efficiency to carbon neutrality varies at the regional level.When the per capita GDP of the eastern and the middle-western regions exceeds 2.522 thousand yuan and 6.098 thousand yuan,respectively,the improvement of renewable energy efficiency contributes to achieving carbon neutrality.(4)the grey correlation degree between net carbon emission increment and renewable energy efficiency convergence is higher than net carbon emissions.The divergent trend of renewable energy efficiency after 2011 promotes the growth of net carbon emissions,which is not conducive to carbon neutrality.The main contributions of this study to the existing literature are in the following three dimensions:Firstly,we apply an economic-social-environmental cycle system considering multi-input and multi-output to evaluate the renewable energy efficiency of 30 provinces in China.A new network DEA model considering undesired output is proposed to measure the renewable energy efficiency of the cyclic system.A new method to assign the weight of the network DEA model is determined based on the relative input reduction rate of each subsystem and the total relative input reduction rate.Secondly,we examine the convergence of renewable energy efficiency for the entire country and the eastern,middle,and western regions on a more comprehensive spatial scale and specifically investigate the impact of the economic crisis here.The study compares the differences in renewable energy convergence across time and space through the spatial panel model.Based on the regional coordinated development strategy proposed by the government,we further reveal the influence of regional cooperation mechanisms and economic development levels on the convergence of regional renewable energy efficiency.Finally,this study discusses the impact mechanism of renewable energy efficiency at national and regional levels on carbon neutrality from the perspective of unbalanced regional economic development.It expands research on the different impacts of renewable energy efficiency in various economic regions to a certain extent.We use the partially linear functional-coefficient panel model to reveal the heterogeneous impact of renewable energy efficiency and the nonlinear relationship between renewable energy efficiency and carbon neutrality under different economic development levels.Compared with traditional parametric models,the proposed approach considers the impact of renewable energy efficiency as a non-parametric function of economic development and it provides the significance and magnitude of the functional-coefficient on renewable energy efficiency for a specific province.更多还原