【作者】 刘宏伟；

【导师】 赵鹏大；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学 ， 资源产业经济， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 高速公路项目通常建设在极其复杂的自然和人文环境中,具有项目投资规模大,建设周期长,施工技术、质量、安全要求高等特点,并且所涉及的资金、技术、人员,以及外部环境和自然灾害等因素都会对整个项目管理产生一定的影响。另外,高速公路项目的全过程管理是一个持续的、动态的管理实践过程,因此,对高速公路项目投资风险管理水平提出了非常高的要求,对于风险管理的成效如何将直接影响到企业的效益乃至生存与发展。目前,国内外学者对高速公路工程投资风险管理开展了相关研究,并取得了一定的研究成果,但随着工程项目建设日益复杂,传统的高速公路项目投资风险管理方法很难适应新形势的发展要求。基于此,本文将以BOT+EPC模式下中国高速公路项目作为研究对象,在分析工程项目投资风险管理国内外研究现状的基础上旨在建立一套完整的,并且能够适用于中国高速公路项目的风险管理体系,以解决传统项目风险管理方法很难适应新形势发展的需求问题,从而进一步提升中国高速公路项目投资风险控制能力,推动我国高速公路工程投资风险管理向更科学的方向发展。本研究主要的工作如下:(1)为了得到BOT+EPC模式下中国高速公路项目的主要风险因素,通过对现有文献的搜集和梳理,初步统计出针对BOT+EPC模式下中国高速公路项目的相关风险因素,采用专家问卷调查法对所有风险因素影响程度进行评定,并基于逐步加权评价比率分析法(SWARA)计算出每个风险因素的相对重要性指数,最终识别出BOT+EPC模式下我国高速公路项目潜在的主要风险因素,为开展后续章节的研究工作提供基础。(2)为了更好的实现对BOT+EPC模式下高速公路项目总体风险评估,本研究首先分析BOT+EPC模式下高速公路项目不同运作阶段间以及阶段内风险因素的相互关联关系,进而建立BOT+EPC模式下高速公路项目风险相互关联网络图,基于此,建立考虑风险双重交互影响的基于贝叶斯网络的高速公路风险评估模型,并给出风险评估的具体方法步骤。通过收集45个BOT+EPC高速公路投资项目的相关数据建立概率表,采用Agena Risk计算软件对实际工程案例进行基于改进贝叶斯网络风险评估方法的应用。结果表明:本文所建立的评估方法较好的预测了实际高速公路投资项目的风险。研究结果为进一步开展高速公路项目的风险应对与监控提供支撑。(3)为了获得最为理想的风险应对策略,本研究围绕多目标下的项目风险应对策略开展研究。首先通过考虑风险之间的相互关联特性,以最小化成本损失、最小化工期进度延迟、最小化工程质量下降以及最大化风险应对效果为目标,提出考虑风险相互关联的两阶段多目标风险应对优化模型,最后,采用MATLAB软件,通过非支配排序遗传算法对一工程实例进行分析计算,以验证两阶段多目标风险应对优化方法的有效性和实用性。结合对实际项目案例的风险评估结果,在科学的制定风险应对策略后,案例项目在后续运营与维护阶段获得了可观的经济效益。(4)为了通过风险监控技术更好的降低风险造成的损失,本研究以自然灾害风险作为分析对象,开展高速公路线路中的桥梁部分在运营维护阶段的风险监控研究。基于可恢复性理论,选取结构功能函数作为关键预警指标,通过可恢复性功能分析以及相应恢复方案的制定,获得目标阈值,并以此构建基于可恢复性的高速公路项目风险监控机制。研究成果对实现抵御自然灾害风险的事前控制,推动风险管理和可恢复性领域的交叉融合起着积极的作用。本文的研究成果可为政府和投资者提供一些有价值的理论参考和技术支撑,对进一步推动中国高速公路项目投资风险管理工作具有重要的科学意义和工程应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Expressway project is usually constructed in extremely complex natural and humanistic environments,it has the characteristics of enormous investment,long construction period,high construction technology,quality,and safety requirements.Factors such as capital,technology,personnel,external environment,and geological disasters will have a certain impact on the entire project management.At the same time,the whole process management of expressway project is a continuous and dynamic management practice process.Therefore,it puts forward very high requirements for the investment risk management of expressway projects that directly affects the benefits and even the development of enterprises.At present,scholars at home and abroad have carried out relevant research on the investment risk management of expressway projects,and the certain research results were achieved.However,with the increasingly complex construction of expressway projects,the traditional investment risk management methods of expressway projects are difficult to satisfy the requirements of the new situation.According to the mentioned above,in this thesis the Chinese expressway project is studied,a complete investment risk management system,which is suitable for China’s expressway risk management,is establish through analyzing existed research.The risk management system obtained in here can solve the drawback of traditional method of project risk management.The research results will improve the investment risk control ability of China’s expressway projects,furtherly,and promote the development of project investment risk management system in a more scientific direction.The main work of the thesis as follows:(1)In order to obtain the key risks of China’s expressway projects under the Build-Operate-Transfer + Engineering-Procurement-Construction(BOT+EPC)model,all the risk factors about China’s expressway projects under the BOT+EPC model were preliminarily collected through referring existed literature.The influence of all risk factors is assessed by expert questionnaire,and the relative importance index of each risk factor is calculated based on stepwise weighted evaluation ratio analysis(SWARA).Finally,the potential major risk factors of expressway project under the BOT+EPC model are identified,which can provide a basis for the research in subsequent chapters.(2)To better realize the overall risk assessment of expressway projects under the BOT+EPC mode,the interdependence of risk factors including the different inter-stage and intra-stage risks is firstly analyzed.And then,the risk net of expressway project under the BOT+EPC model is established.According to this,a Bayesian network-based expressway risk assessment model is further proposed considering the dual interdependence of risks,and the specific method of risk assessment is given.By collecting the relevant data of 45 expressway investment projects,a risk probability table is established,and the improved Bayesian network risk assessment method is applied in actual engineering cases by Agena Risk software.The results show that the assessment method established in this paper can better predict the risk of the actual expressway investment project,and provide support for further risk response and monitoring of expressway projects.(3)In order to obtain the ideal risk-handling strategy,this study focuses on the project risk-handling strategy under the multi-objective.Firstly,by considering the correlation between risks,with the goal of minimizing cost loss,minimizing construction schedule delay,minimizing project quality degradation,and maximizing risk response effect,a two-stage multi-objective risk response considering risk interdependence is proposed.Finally,the MATLAB software and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms(NSGA)are used to analyze and calculate the engineering example,in order to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the two-stage multi-objective risk response optimization method.Combined with the risk assessment results of the actual project case,the scientific risk-handling strategy was developed by the decision maker.Finally,the project achieved a profit in the subsequent operation and maintenance stage.(4)To reduce the loss caused by the risk through the risk monitoring technology,in here,the natural disaster risk is taken as the analysis object,the risk monitoring research is carried out for the bridge part of the expressway in the operation and maintenance stage.Based on the theory of resilience,the structural functionality is selected as the key early warning indicator,and the target threshold is obtained through the analysis of the recovery function and the formulation of the corresponding recovery plan.Based on this,a recovery-based expressway project risk monitoring mechanism is constructed.The research results play a positive role in realizing pre-control against natural disaster risks and promoting the cross-integration of risk management and recoverability.The results obtained in this thesis will play a positive role in further promoting the investment risk management of China’s expressway projects,and provide some valuable theoretical basis and technical support for the government and investors.更多还原