【作者】 刘敏；

【导师】 薛伟贤；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 “一带一路”生产网络迎合了沿线发展中国家借助外力实现突破式发展的需求,同时能充分发挥不同国家的比较优势,有助于构建新的价值链关联,对于创造“一带一路”区域新的增长极具有重大现实意义,解析“一带一路”生产网络的结构特征与形成机制具有极大的研究价值。依托于国际分工、地缘经济、空间结构、社会网络的经典理论及社会网络分析的科学方法,本文从“宏观-中观”“现象-机理-检验”两条路径,构建具有嵌套性与连续性特征的“一带一路”生产网络研究框架,探讨“一带一路”生产网络的结构特征与形成机制。论文的主要工作及创新包括四个方面:第一,系统地分析了“一带一路”生产网络形成的特征事实。现有研究分析“一带一路”生产网络的特征事实不够充分,本文在分析“一带一路”的全球化与区域化特征的基础上,从国际分工视角辨析了“一带一路”生产网络的差异化特征,并通过主要跨国长产业链条刻画,给出了“一带一路”生产网络在细分行业层面的具体例证。研究发现:①“一带一路”的商品生产已成为影响世界市场的一股重要力量。同时,沿线国家间的贸易与投资关系呈现区域化发展趋势。②和成熟国际生产网络不同的是,“一带一路”的国际分工以产业间分工为主导,且产品内分工的“生产分割”现象更为突出。③“一带一路”增加值创造快速提升,价值链体系具有内向化发展的趋势,沿线国家快速融入到了“一带一路”价值链分工体系中。“一带一路”形成了以“中国-电气和光学仪器”“中国-基本金属及金属制品”“俄罗斯-采矿和采石业”为枢纽的跨国长产业链条。第二,运用社会网络分析法,动态刻画了“一带一路”生产网络的结构特征。现有“一带一路”生产网络研究停留在总体层面,本文基于国内增加值数据,构建了“一带一路”生产网络无权及加权两类模拟网络,从“总体-国家”和“行业-国家”两个层级以及整体、群体、个体三个层面刻画“一带一路”生产网络的结构特征,拓展了当前研究的层级。研究发现:整体层面,沿线国家在“一带一路”生产网络中合作的“距离”越来越小,互惠特征日益明显,生产分工与合作关系日趋紧密,并倾向于“抱团合作”。群体层面,“一带一路”生产网络内形成了以中国为首的东-南亚洲社团和以俄罗斯为首的欧洲-中亚-西亚社团,社团成员构成相对稳定。在细分行业中,多数行业的社团构成也极具地域特征。个体层面:①中国、俄罗斯等国的核心地位正趋于稳固;②中国、俄罗斯、印尼、印度、马来西亚等国在网络中拥有较高的中心地位,中国、俄罗斯、印度、马来西亚、土耳其等国是与其他国家接近程度最高的国家;③中国、俄罗斯、印度、波兰、土耳其等国是“中间人”优势最高的国家;④中国、俄罗斯、新加坡、印尼、印度等国是影响力最大的国家。第三,剖析并检验了“一带一路”生产网络形成的内生机制。现有研究缺乏对国际生产网络内生机制的分析,本文从网络形成的自组织过程出发,提出“一带一路”生产网络形成具有互惠、扩张、传递闭合和时间依赖效应。利用TERGM模型实证检验发现:①互惠性对“一带一路”生产网络的形成产生了积极的正向影响;②“一带一路”生产网络的形成存在扩张性,且沿线国家间的合作关系没有被少数国家垄断;③“一带一路”生产网络趋于闭合,各国倾向于“抱团合作”;④各国构建的既有合作关系不会随着时间变化产生太大的变动,“一带一路”生产网络呈现出稳定发展的趋势。第四,从机理分析和实证检验两个方面对“一带一路”生产网络形成的外生机制展开研究。在考察一般性因素影响的基础上,分析了新合作机制推动、中国影响力提升、中美战略竞争对“一带一路”生产网络形成的影响机理。此外,使用前沿的TERGM模型对“一带一路”生产网络的形成机制进行实证检验与仿真。研究发现:除马太效应不显著外,同配性、互补效应、制度的邻近性、地理邻近效应、双边政治关系影响、交通基础设施联通能力提升、新合作机制推动、中国影响力提升、中美战略竞争都对“一带一路”生产网络的形成产生了显著影响。扩展分析发现,“一带一路”倡议提出后:①沿线国家间的互惠性大幅提升;②沿线国家转变为更倾向于与制度环境差异小的国家构建生产分工与合作关系;③中国的影响力对“一带一路”生产网络形成的正向作用大幅提升;④中美战略竞争对“一带一路”生产网络形成的影响变得更为明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Belt and Road(B&R)production network caters to the needs of developing countries along the route to achieve breakthrough development through external forces,and at the same time can give full play to the comparative advantages of different countries,helping to build new value chain links,which is of great practical significance for creating new growth poles in the B&R region.It is of great practical significance to analyse the structural characteristics and formation mechanism of the B&R production network.Relying on the classical theories of international division of labor,geo-economy,spatial structure and social network and the scientific method of social network analysis,this paper constructs a nested and continuous B&R production network research framework from "macro-meso" and "phenomenon-mechanismexamination" paths.The paper explores the structural characteristics and formation mechanism of the B&R production network.The main work and innovations of the paper can be summarised in the following four aspects.Firstly,this paper systematically analyzes the characteristic facts of the formation of the B&R production network.Basis on the analysis of the globalization and regionalization characteristics of the B&R region,the paper identifies the differentiated characteristics of the B&R production network from the perspective of international division of labor,and gives concrete examples of the B&R production network at the level of sub-sectors through the portrayal of major transnational long industrial chains.It is found that:(ⅰ)The production of goods along the B&R has become an important force in influencing world markets.At the same time,trade and investment relations between the countries along the B&R show a clear trend towards regionalisation.(ⅱ)Unlike mature international production networks,the international division of labour along the B&R is dominated by an inter-industrial division of labour,with a more pronounced "production fragmentation" within products.(ⅲ)The value-added creation of B&R is rapidly increasing,and the value chain system has a tendency to develop inwards,with countries along the route rapidly integrating into the value chain division of labour system of B&R.The B&R region has formed "China-electrical and optical instuments","China-base metals and metal products" and "Russia-mining and quarrying" as the hub of the long transnational industrial chain.Secondly,this paper uses social network analysis to portray the dynamical structural characteristics of the B&R production network.The existing research on B&R production networks is limited to the overall level.Based on domestic value-added data,this paper constructs unweighted and weighted simulation networks of the B&R production networks,and portrays the structural characteristics of B&R production networks at two levels:"overall-country" and"industry-country",as well as three levels:overall,group and individual,expanding the current research level.The study finds that:At the overall level,the "distance" between the countries along the B&R production network is getting smaller and smaller,the reciprocity is becoming more and more obvious,the division of labour and cooperation is getting closer and closer,and there is a tendency to be "grouped together".At the group level,the B&R production network has formed an East-South Asian association led by China and a Europe-Central Asia-West Asia association led by Russia,with a relatively stable membership.In most of the sectors,the composition of the associations is also very geographically specific.At the individual level:(ⅰ)China and Russia are becoming more central.(ⅱ)China,Russia,Indonesia,India and Malaysia have a high central position in the network,and China,Russia,India,Malaysia and Turkey are the countries with the highest degree of proximity to other countries.(ⅲ)China,Russia,India,Poland and Turkey are the countries with the "intermediaries".(ⅳ)China,Russia,Singapore,Indonesia and India are the most influential countries.Thirdly,this paper analyzes and examines the endogenous mechanism of the formation of the B&R production network.The existing research lacks the analysis of the endogenous mechanism of international production network.While this paper proposes that the formation of B&R production network has reciprocity,expansion,transmission closure and time-dependent effects from the self-organization process of network formation.The empirical test of TERGM model finds that:(ⅰ)Except for mining and quarrying,reciprocity has a positive impact on the formation of the B&R production network.(ⅱ)The formation of the B&R production network has an expansionary nature,and the construction of cooperative relations among the countries along the B&R is not monopolised by a few countries.(ⅲ)The B&R production network tends to close,and countries tend to "work together".(ⅳ)The existing cooperation relationships built by countries in the network will not change much with time,and the B&R production network shows a trend of stable development.Fourthly,this paper examines the exogenous mechanism of the formation of the B&R production network from two aspects:mechanism analysis and empirical test.Based on the general factors,this paper analyze the mechanisms of new cooperation mechanisms,China’s increasing influence,and the strategic competition between China and the United States on the formation of the B&R production network.In addition,a frontier TERGM model has been used to empirically test and simulate the formation mechanism of the B&R production network.The study found that:In addition to the non-significant matthew effect,congruence,complementarity,institutional proximity,geographic proximity,bilateral political relations,improved transport infrastructure connectivity,new cooperation mechanisms,increased Chinese influence,and strategic competition between China and the United States all have a significant impact on the formation of the B&R production network.The extended analysis found that after the B&R Initiative was launched:(ⅰ)The reciprocity among countries along the production network has increased significantly.(ⅱ)Countries along the route have changed from preferring to build production cooperation relationships with countries with large differences in institutional environments to preferring to build production cooperation relationships with countries with small differences in institutional environments.(ⅲ)The positive effect of Chinese influence on the formation of the B&R production network has increased significantly.(ⅳ)The influence of the US-China strategic competition on the formation of the B&R production network has also become more obvious.更多还原