【作者】 王浩；

【导师】 刘穷志；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 财政学， 2020， 博士

【摘要】 改革开放以来,中国经济取得了世界瞩目的增长奇迹,但受全球经济形势变化的影响,中国面对经济下行压力,采取积极的财政政策加强内生增长能力。政府投资作为有效的财政政策,一直是应对金融危机,稳定经济发展的重要手段。在中国财政分权的背景下,地方政府投资对中国宏观经济运行显示出强大的影响力。一直是推动中国经济增长的重要政策工具。随着地方政府投资规模的逐步加大,地方政府投资能够稳定经济发展、供给更多公共产品、引导社会资本进入、增进社会福利等益处也逐渐显现。因此,探讨地方政府投资的效应评估问题能够为未来中国政府如何发挥正确职能,落实宏观投资战略,推进升级产业结构,真正能够实现持续发展的内生经济增长模式,为转型中的中国探讨合理的地方政府投资方针,指导地区经济发展方向提供必要的理论和实证基础。重庆市作为我国面积最大、人口最多的直辖市,是我国加快中西部经济社会发展、缩小东西差距的重要战略支撑。面对高速发展的风口,重庆市充分利用财政政策,发挥政府投资的乘数效应,大力推进政府和社会资本合作项目,取得了巨大的成功,充分发挥了政府投资和民间投资对促进有效投资的协同集成作用。因此,以重庆市为样本,考察地方政府投资的效应问题能够对其他省市地方政府投资模式起到积极的示范作用,并且能够揭示中国政府投资对经济增长和社会福利影响的内生动力机制。本文首先在有关政府投资与经济增长效应的理论分析基础上,结合有效需求理论、弹性理论,运用纵向时间序列分析与横向截面分析相结合的思路构建计量模型,检验重庆市地方政府投资带来的经济增长效应;其次对重庆市产业结构变迁进行梳理,总结近年来重庆市各产业的发展状况。在此基础上运用面板数据构建计量模型,检验重庆市地方政府投资给各产业带来的具体影响。进一步借助偏离-份额分析法,对重庆市第一、第二和第三产业,以及各主要的支柱产业进行产业结构分析,探讨更具竞争力的产业发展;接下来,还从短期和长期视角,借助协整检验和面板数据模型,分别对重庆市地方政府投资带来的就业和居民消费影响进行分析。在以上分析基础上,首先运用数据包络分析(DEA模型)测算重庆市地方政府投资的效率,之后再借助投入产出分析(Input-Output模型)对未来重庆市地方政府投资的可选路径进行探索。最后通过全文综合解析,提出有关地方政府投资的相关政策启示。本文的主要研究结论包括:(1)地方政府投资确实对当地经济增长存在促进作用;(2)2010-2018年间重庆市地方政府投资对第三产业的促进作用最大,第二产业次之,第一产业影响相对较小;(3)现阶段重庆市政府投资对产业结构效应具有积极影响,对当地经济有一定的促进作用;(4)与直接经济效应、产业结构效应类似,重庆市地方政府投资对当地就业起到了一定的促进作用;(5)从市级层面来看,重庆市地方政府投资的增加使得当地居民消费支出减少,地方政府投资与居民消费呈现替代关系,存在挤出效应;从区县层面来看,重庆市级层面表明部分区县政府投资对消费有正向影响;(6)劳动力投入仍旧是影响经济增长的因素,不过在人口数量红利逐渐消失、科技引领经济发展的时代,要想保持经济持续稳定增长,更要重视劳动力质量的提升;(7)重庆市工业和房地产业对于重庆市经济增长起到明显的促进作用,而金融业和仓储邮政业的优势相比较而言并不十分明显;(8)从整体上来看,重庆市是具有经济增长潜力的,但是在2010到2018年的样本期间,重庆市38个区县的投入资源浪费和产出效率低的问题是明显存在的,并且地区间的地方政府投资效率的差异也是十分明显的。(9)地方政府投资总额增加能够有效带动总产出的增加,对于产业结构的影响相对较小,但是投向第三产业带来的可能经济效应最大。基于以上的结论,本文相关的政策启示如下:(1)正确认识政府投资与私人投资关系,共促经济发展;(2)推动供给侧改革,引导符合产业结构调整的适度投资;(3)以增加社会福利为导向,完善政府投资计划;(4)宏观统筹协调,促进区县间合作、互补、共赢发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has achieved remarkable growth miracle in the world.However,under the influence of changes in the global economic situation,China,facing downward economic pressure,has adopted proactive fiscal policies to strengthen its endogenous growth capacity.As an effective fiscal policy,government investment has always been an important means to deal with the financial crisis and stabilize economic development.In the context of fiscal decentralization in China,local government investment has shown a strong influence on China’s macroeconomic operation.Has been an important policy tool to drive China’s economic growth.With the gradual increase in the scale of local government investment,the benefits of local government investment,such as stabilizing economic development,providing more public goods,guiding social capital to enter,and enhancing social welfare,have gradually emerged.Therefore,to explore the effect of local government investment assessment questions to the Chinese government for the future how to play to function correctly,to carry out the macro investment strategy,promote the upgrading of the industrial structure,can really achieve sustained development of endogenous economic growth model,for the transformation of China to explore the reasonable local government investment policy,guidance of regional economic development direction to provide necessary theoretical and empirical basis.As a municipality directly under the Central Government with the largest area and the largest population in China,Chongqing is an important strategic measure to accelerate the economic and social development in the central and western regions and narrow the gap between the east and the west.In the face of rapid development,Chongqing has made full use of fiscal policies,given full play to the multiplier effect of government investment,vigorously promoted the cooperation projects between government and social capital,and achieved great success,giving full play to the synergic and integrated role of government investment and private investment in promoting effective investment.Therefore,taking Chongqing as a sample,studying the effect of local government investment can play a positive role in demonstrating the investment model of other provinces and cities,and reveal the endogenous driving mechanism of the impact of Chinese government investment on economic growth and social welfare.Firstly,based on the theoretical analysis of the effects of government investment and economic growth,combined with the effective demand theory and elasticity theory,this paper constructs an econometric model with the combination of longitudinal time series analysis and transverse section analysis to test the economic growth effect brought by local government investment in Chongqing.Secondly,it combs the industrial structure change of Chongqing and summarizes the development of various industries in Chongqing in recent years.On this basis,the panel data is used to construct the econometric model to test the specific impact of Chongqing local government investment on various industries.With the help of shift-share analysis,the industrial structure of Chongqing’s first,second and third industries as well as the main pillar industries is analyzed to explore more competitive industrial development.Then,from a short-term and long-term perspective,with the help of co-integration test and panel data model,the paper analyzes the impact of local government investment on employment and household consumption in Chongqing.On the basis of the above analysis,the DEA model is first used to estimate the investment efficiency of Chongqing local government,and then the alternative path of future investment of Chongqing local government is explored with the help of input-output analysis.Finally,through the comprehensive analysis of the full text,the paper puts forward relevant policy enlightenment about local government investment.The main conclusions of this paper include :(1)local government investment does promote local economic growth;(2)From 2010 to 2018,Chongqing’s local government investment promoted the tertiary industry the most,followed by the secondary industry,and the primary industry had a relatively small impact.(3)At the present stage,Chongqing municipal government investment has a positive impact on the industrial structure and a certain promotion effect on the local economy;(4)Similar to the direct economic effect and industrial structure effect,the investment of Chongqing local government plays a certain role in promoting local employment;(5)At the municipal level,the increase of local government investment in Chongqing reduces local residents’ consumption expenditure,and there is a substitution relationship between local government investment and residents’ consumption,with crowding out effect.From the level of district and county,Chongqing municipal level shows that some district and county government investment has a positive impact on consumption;(6)Labor input is still a factor affecting economic growth.However,in the era of disappearing population dividend and economic development led by science and technology,to maintain sustained and stable economic growth,more attention should be paid to the improvement of labor quality.(7)The industrial and real estate industry plays an obvious role in promoting the economic growth of Chongqing,while the advantages of financial industry and warehousing and postal service are not so obvious.(8)On the whole,Chongqing has the potential for economic growth.However,during the sample period from 2010 to 2018,the problems of waste of input resources and low output efficiency in 38 districts and counties of Chongqing are obvious,and the differences in investment efficiency of local governments among regions are also obvious.(9)The increase of total investment by local governments can effectively drive the increase of total output,which has a relatively small impact on the industrial structure,but its investment in the tertiary industry has the greatest possible economic effect.Based on the above conclusions,the relevant policy implications of this paper are as follows :(1)correctly understand the relationship between government investment and private investment to jointly promote economic development;(2)Promote supply-side reform and guide appropriate investment in line with the adjustment of industrial structure;(3)Improve the government investment plan by increasing social welfare;(4)Promote cooperation,mutual complementarity and win-win development between districts and counties through overall planning and coordination.更多还原