【作者】 李涛；

【导师】 荣莉莉；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的高速发展,高铁网络的建设步伐不断加快,“四纵四横”的高铁网络已经形成,“八纵八横”的高铁网络正加密成型。高铁网络已从早期基于高铁站的简单单线结构,跨越到基于高铁站、高铁线路以及高铁运输组织的复杂多层次网状结构。伴随着高铁网络规模的扩大和覆盖区域的增多,其在社会经济发展中发挥着日益突出的作用。因此,确保高铁网络安全意义重大,已成为了国家安全战略的重要组成部分。但不幸的是,近年来,随着全球气候变暖趋势急速加剧,极端灾害在我国频繁发生,高铁网络遭受灾害的种类和数量也急剧增多,产生的后果愈发严重,甚至会给国家和社会带来巨大损失。特别是由于高铁站、高铁线路和高铁运输组织之间关联关系复杂且动态变化,灾害对高铁网络造成的影响,会超出单一高铁站、线路,甚至运输组织,而在它们之间传播扩散,导致严重的次生衍生灾害后果。加之高铁站、高铁线路、高铁运输组织分别处于不同层次的高铁网络中,它们失效产生的损失和影响不尽相同,进而使得高铁灾害的应对变得愈发困难和复杂。为此,如何从多层次视角确保和提升高铁网络安全水平,已成为相关部门面临的重要挑战和难题。而分析和认识高铁网络的脆弱性,并从多层次视角对其脆弱性进行精细化管理,以有效降低其脆弱性,已是提升高铁网络防灾抗灾能力,确保其安全运行的必要前提和重要手段。本文从高铁网络脆弱性的形成机理出发,针对高铁网络的多层次性和动态性特征,以脆弱性评估与分析为主线,重点研究多层次视角下动态高铁网络的建模与表示、适应不同层次视角下高铁网络脆弱性评估的问题。本文的主要研究工作如下:(1)多层次视角下动态高铁网络模型构建研究。高铁网络脆弱性产生的内因是其自身结构与功能对致灾因子的敏感性,因此,明确其结构与功能是评估其脆弱性的基础。鉴于此,本文针对高铁网络结构的多层次性和功能的动态性,建立了不同层次视角下动态高铁网络模型。首先,从点-线-面三个粒度层级明晰高铁网络要素的层次性,以分析不同层次网络要素之间关联关系。其次,运用复杂网络与超网络理论与方法,基于列车运行的路线,从时空维度对不同层次视角下高铁网络要素之间的关联关系进行表示。然后,基于要素之间的关联关系,分别构建了站点层次、线路层次、运输组织层次视角下动态高铁网络模型。最后,选取我国大陆地区高铁网络进行实例分析,验证了所建模型的有效性。(2)适应多层次的高铁网络性能评估方法研究。高铁网络性能作为脆弱性测度的指标,构建网络性能评估方法是高铁网络脆弱性评估的前提。为此,本文首先从不同层次视角下高铁网络的功能特征出发,基于其提供服务的角度,分析并表示了不同层次视角下高铁网络的功能共性。其次,基于上述共性特征,选取广义出行成本和客运量作为不同层次视角下高铁网络性能的评估指标。然后,借鉴可达性理论,综合考虑网络结构与功能两个维度,提出了适用于不同层次视角下高铁网络性能的评估方法。最后,以我国大陆地区高铁网络为例,结合相关运营数据和统计数据,评估了不同层次视角下高铁网络的性能,并对比分析了其差异性。(3)多层次高铁网络脆弱性评估方法研究。致灾因子是高铁网络暴露出脆弱性的外部诱因,为此,本文从致灾因子与网络失效的关系出发,围绕网络性能损失,构建高铁网络脆弱性的评估方法。首先,基于高铁网络遭受致灾因子的历史数据,实证分析了致灾因子的复杂性,并从时空维度对其进行表示,进而分析了高铁网络失效与性能损失的复杂性。其次,对不同层次高铁网络要素的失效状态进行划分和表示,从而分析了要素失效模式和要素间的失效传播。然后,结合致灾因子与网络要素失效的关系,从致灾因子造成后果的共性出发,以网络要素及其失效状态为核心,对不同层次视角下高铁网络要素失效进行建模,并基于性能损失的程度,构建了多层次高铁网络脆弱性的评估方法。最后,结合典型灾害情景及案例,特别是近年发生的“7·20”郑州特大暴雨、台风“利奇马”、南方冰雪灾害,仿真分析了不同层次视角下我国高铁网络的脆弱性,验证了所提方法的有效性。(4)面向脆弱性管理的高铁网络关键要素识别与脆弱性区划。高铁网络脆弱性评估的主要目的是为了从整体上了解和认识其脆弱性分布情况,以通过对其脆弱性进行有效管理,来提升高铁网络安全运行水平。为此,本文结合我国高铁网络脆弱性管理的现实需求,从关键要素识别和脆弱性区划两个方面出发,展开应用研究。首先,给出了高铁网络关键要素的定义以及识别关键要素的意义,进而基于枚举法提出了关键要素的识别方法。其次,基于空间区划理论,给出了高铁网络脆弱性区划的方法。最后,分别给出了站点层次、线路层次、运输组织层次视角下我国高铁网络的关键要素和脆弱性区划图,并给出了相应的脆弱性管理启示与建议。综上,本文的研究工作不仅丰富了基础设施网络系统的建模方法,也拓展了基础设施网络系统脆弱性的评估理论与方法及其应用。研究结果可为合理布局运维资源、制定运维策略,精细化管理高铁网络脆弱性提供决策辅助。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the fast growth of China’s economy,the construction pace of high-speed rail network(HSRN)continues to accelerate.Furthermore,the "Four Vertical and Four Horizontal" HSRN has been formed,and the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" HSRN is being shaped by increasing its density.The HSRN has spanned from the early simple single-line structure composed of high-speed rail(HSR)stations to the complex multi-level network structure composed of HSR stations,HSR lines and HSR organizations.With the expansion of the HSRN’s scale,its coverage area has gradually increased,which plays an increasingly prominent role in social and economic development.Hence,ensuring the security of the HSRN is significant,which has become an important part of the national security strategy.But unfortunately,extreme disasters have occurred frequently in China in recent years with the rapid intensification of global warming.As a result,the types and numbers of disasters suffered by the HSRN have also increased sharply,which may cause extremely serious consequences and even bring huge losses to the country and society.In particular,due to the complex and dynamic relation among HSR stations,HSR lines and HSR organizations,the impact of disasters on HSRN may go beyond a single station,line,or even organization,and spread among them,leading to seriously secondary and derivative disaster consequences.Additionally,HSR stations,HSR lines and HSR organizations are located in different levels of HSRN,and the losses and impacts caused by their failures are not the same,which makes the response to HSR disasters more difficult and complex.Therefore,how to ensure and improve the security level of HSRN from a multi-level perspective has become an important challenge and problem faced by relevant administrations.Analyzing and recognizing the vulnerability of HSRN and finely managing its vulnerability from a multi-level perspective to effectively reduce its vulnerability have become a necessary prerequisite and an important approach to improving the capability of disaster prevention and reduction of HSRN and ensuring its safe operation.This dissertation focuses on the issues of modeling and describing of dynamic HSRN at multi levels and assessing method suitable for the vulnerability of the multi-level HSRN under considering its multilayered and dynamic characteristics,which takes the vulnerability assessment as the main line and starts from the formation mechanism of HSRN vulnerability.The main contents of this dissertation are as follows:(1)Dynamic model construction of HSRN from a multi-level perspective.The internal cause of the vulnerability of HSRN is the sensitivity of its own structure and function to hazards.Therefore,clarifying the structure and function of HSRN is the basis for assessing its vulnerability.Based on this,the dynamic model of HSRN from different levels of perspectives is developed under considering the multi-level structure and the dynamic function of its attributes.Firstly,the components of HSRN are clarified from piont-line-plane level,so as to analyze the relations between the comopents at different levels.Secondly,the theories and methods of complex network and super network are applied to hierarchically describe the relations between the components of HSRN at different levels from the spatio-temporal dimension,based on the routes of train operations within HSRN.Thirdly,based on the spatiotemporal relations between the components,the dynamic network models at the station level,at the line level,and at the organization level are constructed respectively.Finally,the HSRN in Chinese mainland is taken as a case to verify the validity of the proposed model.(2)Performance assessment method for multi-level HSRN.The performance of HSRN is taken as the indicator of its vulnerability measurement,so the construction of the performance assessment method is the premise of the vuvulnerability assessment of HSRN.Firstly,the commonality of functional characteristics of HSRN at different levels is analyezed and described from the perspective of the services it provides based on the functional characteristics of multi-level HSRN.Secondly,generalized trip cost and passenger flow are selected as the assessment indicators of the performance of HSRN at different levels based on the commonality of its functional characteristics.Thirdly,a novel method for assessing the performance of HSRN at different levels is proposed by referring to the accessibility theory and considering the two dimensions of network structure and function comprehensively.Finally,taking the HSRN in Chinese mainland as a case,combined with the relevant operation data and statistic data,the performance of China’s HSRN at different levels is evaluated,and its differences at different leves are compaered and analyzed.(3)Vulnerability assessment method for multi-level HSRN.Hazards are taken as the external triggers for the vulnerability of HSRN.Based on the relations between hazards and network failure,the assessment method for the vulnerability of HSRN is proposed according to its performance loss.Firstly,the complexity of the hazards China’s HSRN suffers is empirically revealed on the basis of the historical data,and the hazards are described from the spatiotemporal dimension.Futhermore,the complexity of the failure and performance loss of HSRN is revealed by considering the hazards.Secondly,the failure states of components in HSRN at different levels are divided and described,and then their failure modes and failure propagation between them are aslo investigated.Thirdly,combined with the relations between hazards and components failure and based on the commonality of the consequences caused by hazards,the components failure within HSRN at different levels is modeled by taking the compontents and their failure status as the core.Then,a method for assessing the vulnerability of HSRN at different levels is proposed on the basis of its performance loss degree.Finally,the vulnerability of China’s HSRN at different levels is simulated and analyzed by combining the typical disaster cases and their commonalities,especially July 20 Heavy rainstorm in Zhengzhou,Super Typhoon Lekima,and 2008 snow disaster in China,which verifies the validity of the proposed method.(4)Critical components identification and vulnerability regionalization of HSRN for vulnerability management.The main purpose of aassessing the vulnerability of HSRN is to understand and recognize the distribution of its vulnerability on the whole,so as to improve the safe operation level of HSRN through effective management of its vulnerability.Therefore,combined with the realistic demands of the vulnerability management of China’s HSRN,the application research is conducted from two aspects of critical components identification and vulnerability regionalization.Firstly,the definition of critical components and the significance of identifying critical components are illustrated,and then the identification method of critical components is developed based on enumeration model.Secondly,the method for regionalizing the vulnerability of HSRN is proposed based on the spatial regionalization theory.Finally,the critical components and vulnerability regionalization map of China’s HSRN at the station level,line level and organization level are presented respectively.Furthermore,the corresponding vulnerability management insights and suggestions are illustrated.In summary,the research results of this dissertation not only enrich the modeling methods of infrastructure network systems,but also extend the theory and method of the vulnerability assessment of infrastructure network systems and its application.The obtained findings can provide decision-making assistance for the rational layout of operation and maintenance resources,optimal develpoment of operation and maintenance strategies,and delicacy management of HSRN vulnerability.更多还原