【作者】 张坤；

【导师】 李优树；

【作者基本信息】 四川大学 ， 世界经济， 2022， 博士

【摘要】 过去几十年全球经济的一个显著特征是存在规模巨大且持续扩张的外部失衡。例如,在全球金融危机爆发前的几年,一些新兴市场国家,典型的如中国,积累了大量的经常账户盈余,而一些发达国家则累积了不同程度的经常账户赤字,特别是美国。特朗普政府正是以此为借口,发起对中国的三轮贸易摩擦。当贸易赤字在一部分国家累积,而盈余在另一部分国家累积的同时,全球经济的另一个显著特征是全球价值链的兴起。在运输成本下降、信息和通讯技术进步,以及贸易自由化政策推进等多重因素的共同推动下,跨国公司越来越多的将生产分散到全球各地,这种在全球范围的生产分割,造成中间品贸易在总贸易中所占比重呈上升趋势。改革开放初期,中国因地制宜地采用“低技术、低附加值、高耗能”加工贸易方式参与国际分工,大量接纳日、韩国家的直接投资,在中国境内建立生产加工出口基地,再将最终产成品出口到欧美国家。在此过程中,中国逐渐成为世界工厂,然而由于存在统计缺陷,出现中国国际收支过度扩张,但实际贸易利得并不高的现象。因此,美国贸易逆差与中国贸易顺差事实上是全球化分工的自然结果。此外,汇率在国际贸易中调整作用,随着全球价值链的发展,出口中包含的外国增加值比重上升,贸易价格和边际成本同步变动,导致总量贸易对汇率变动的敏感程度下降,出现所谓的“汇率失联”之谜。在后向联系的全球价值链参与中,本国对他国的出口产品中包含来自第三国的中间投入品,则本国对他国的出口量除了受到与出口国的双边汇率的影响外,还要受到本国与上游中间品出口国之间双边汇率的影响。若本国货币相对贬值,则本国出口他国的商品价格将由于来自上游中间品的相对价格提高而受到边际成本冲击。同理,在前向联系的全球价值链参与,本国对他国的出口产品,若他国再加工后再次出口到第三国,则本国对他国的出口量除了受到与他国的双边汇率影响外,还将受到他国与第三国的双边汇率影响。当他国汇率升值,本国对他国商品价格将由于他国出口到第三国价格变得相对昂贵而受到下游需求冲击。基于以上的研究思路,本文在结构安排上共分为四个部分,由九章组成。第一部分为研究基础,包括1-4章。第1章为绪论。主要内容包括论文的研究背景和研究意义,在研究过程中遵循的研究思路和研究方法,以及可能的创新之处及不足。第2章为文献综述。总结现有文献就全球价值链概念的提出及发展动力,全球价值链测度,以及影响全球价值链分工地位等方面的研究成果,梳理经常账户失衡的原因、影响,以及经常账户再平衡存在的挑战,同时考察了汇率不完全传递的原因,为论文研究提供文献准备。第3章为理论基础。重点梳理全球价值链测算理论、经常账户收支理论、汇率对经常账户的调节理论,为后文建立全球价值链参与影响经常账户的理论框架,以及实证分析提供理论前提和数据支撑。第4章为全球价值链影响经常账户的典型事实。具体包括全球价值链发展现状及趋势,中国全球价值链参与情况,全球价值链分工地位的描述性统计;经常账户失衡的阶段性特征、国别特征,中国经常账户演变情况,经常账户失衡可能带来的不良影响。通过对比分析发现,全球价值链分工体系与各国经常账户出现持续不平衡,在时间节点上高度重合。为此提出如下两个假说:一是全球价值链参与将扩大一国经常账户余额;二是全球价值链参与扩大一国经常账户余额主要由于实际有效汇率对经常账户的调节作用降低,也就是说,全球价值链的参与削弱了实际有效汇率对经常账户余额的调节作用。第二部分为理论分析和实证检验,包括5-7章。第5章为理论模型。构建一个包含中间投入品贸易的宏观结构模型,同时将进出口量视作进出口价格、双边汇率,以及全球价值链参与的函数,从而将全球价值链不同参与方式、汇率,以及经常账户纳入同一理论分析框架。得出在前向联系的全球价值链中,进口品价格通过边际成本效应对本国出口品形成供给冲击;在后向联系的全球价值链中,出口价格受到下游环节牛鞭效应影响对本国出口品形成需求冲击,最终得出,除马歇尔-勒纳条件外,全球价值链参与是影响汇率对经常账户调节作用的另一个重要路径。第6章为全球价值链对经常账户影响的实证分析。对国际货币基金组织的外部平衡评估模型(EBA)进行修正,加入全球价值链参与度指标,同时控制各类可能影响经常账户的周期性变量、宏观经济基本面变量,以及政策变量,得出全球价值链参与可以增加一国经常账户余额。在稳健性检验中,将基准回归中的以WIOD数据库测算的全球价值链参与指数替换为ADB-MIRO数据库,以及剔除欧元区样本,结果依然稳健。在异质性分析方面,分别考察经常账户赤字国家和盈余国家,发展中国及和发达国家,全球价值链参与对经常账户的不同影响。第7章为全球价值链影响经常账户的汇率传递机制实证检验。首先需要采用线性回归方法测算汇率弹性和汇率传递系数,然后将全球价值链参与度和汇率传递、汇率弹性的交互项纳入回归方程,考察全球价值链背景下,实际有效汇率对经常账户的调节作用。第三部分为实际有效汇率替代方案设计,由第8章构成。基于前文的理论和实证分析结果,全球价值链参与削弱实际有效汇率对经常账户调节作用,通过将全球价值链参与情况纳入实际有效汇率的测算中来解决实际有效汇率对经常账户调节作用不足的问题。将传统实际有效汇率中以总值贸易为权重矩阵调整为以增加值贸易为权重矩阵;同时,考虑国内不同行业参与全球价值链的异质性。第四部分为本文的结论部分,由第9章构成。本文得出以下几点结论:(1)在全球价值链参与下,不管是前向联系的参与方式,即本国增加值通过再出口方式延伸到更多生产环节;还是后向联系的参与方式,即为出口而进口,均为本国要素资源参与国际生产分工提供了机会,因而不管是前向联系还是后向联系的全球价值链参与均可增加一国经常账户余额。(2)随着全球价值链参与度的提高,中间品贸易在进出口贸易总额中所占比重越来越高,从而进口价格的汇率传递上升,出口价格的汇率传递下降。(3)在实际有效汇率对经常账户余额的调节作用中,前向联系的全球价值链参与情形中,下游各环节通过牛鞭效应对本国出口形成需求冲击,本国出口价格的汇率传递效应降低,出口量对汇率的弹性也下降;后向联系的全球价值链参与情形中,上游各环节通过边际成本效应对本国进口形成供给冲击,本国进口价格的汇率传递效用上升,进口量对汇率传递的弹性下降,最终全球价值链参与通过降低汇率对经常账户的调节作用提高本国经常账户余额。针对前文分析结论,提出提升中国在全球价值链分工地位稳定出口,完善人民币汇率形成机制,改革对外部门统计核算等建议,并就全球价值链参与对货币政策效果的影响,全球价值链影响实际有效汇率中计价结算货币的作用,以及行业层面实际有效汇率的测算等问题,提出未来可能继续深入的研究方向。本文可能的创新点有:(1)将全球价值链参与纳入宏观分析框架。本文通过将中间品纳入一般均衡模型接触中间投入品的均衡价格,在此基础上将进出口量视作价格、汇率和全球价值链参与的函数,建立起前向联系的全球价值链参与和出口量,后向联系的全球价值链参与和进口量的函数关系,最后通过经常账户余额等于进出口总额之差,即净出口,从而将全球价值链不同参与方式、汇率,以及经常账户纳入同一理论分析框架。(2)以全球价值链视角研究经常账户失衡和汇率传递不完全问题。尽管经常账户和资本账户在国际收支中的关系属于一个硬币的两面,但是从资本账户,尤其是资本流动的角度解释全球失衡问题对于美元为国际货币的美国比较有说服力,尤其对于解释作为国际货币,美元如何让美国成为世界上最大的逆差国;但是对于德国、日本,以及中国这样以制造业为主的国家则欠缺说服力。同时注意到这些以制造业为主的国家的一个显著的共同特征是深度参与全球分工,从而存在这一个关于国际贸易对经常账户失衡的解释,即全球价值链。此外,既有关于汇率传递的文献对汇率传递效应下降的解释往往将其与能源产品在总进口量中的比重下降相关联,以及货币一体化,如欧元区的建立,或者认为汇率传递率下降是由于国际贸易中竞争加剧造成的,本文对汇率传递效应下降给出了全球价值链的解释。注意到汇率对经常账户的支出转换效用,从而将全球价值链、汇率传递,以及经常账户联系起来。(3)在实证分析方面,对IMF的外部平衡评估模型进行修正。IMF的外部平衡评估模型(EBA)是当前分析经常账户失衡最为成熟的模型,该模型将可能影响经常账户的周期性因素、政策性因素,以及宏观经济基本面因素均纳入实证模型内,然而却没有将近年来快速发展的全球价值链纳入其中,因此本文在标准外部平衡评估模型上分别将前向、后向联系的全球价值链纳入模型框架,以实证分析全球价值链不同参与方式对经常账户余额的影响。传统的实际有效汇率主要由国际货币基金组织(IMF)、国际清算银行(BIS)等测算并定期发布的实际有效汇率指数,用于衡量一个国家或地区出口产品的国际竞争力,该指数在贸易权重的确定上都是简单的将总值贸易权重,也就是对某国家的进出口贸易额占该国进出口贸易总额作为权重,从而忽略了总值贸易中包含的中间投入品贸易,即全球价值链贸易参与情况。随着中间投入品贸易在总值贸易中所占比重越来越高,传统实际有效汇率对一国出口产品的国际竞争力的评估也就越不准确,对后向参与全球价值链的国家普遍存在高估趋势,而对前向参与全球价值链的国家则存在低估趋势。因此,本文将一国出口产品中包含的本国增加值占该国出口产品总增加的比重作为贸易权重,从而对前向联系的全球价值链参与方式给予更高的权重,而对后向联系参与全球价值链的国家给予较低的权重,改善传统实际有效汇率对经常账户调整失灵的情况。更多还原

【Abstract】 A striking feature of the global economy over the past few decades has been the existence of large and expanding external imbalances.For example,in the years leading up to the global financial crisis,some emerging market countries,typically China,accumulated large current account surpluses,while some developed countries,notably the United States,ran varying degrees of current account deficits.The Trump administration has used this as an excuse to launch three rounds of trade frictions against China.Another striking feature of the global economy,as trade deficits build up in one part of the world and surpluses in another,is the rise of global value chains.Driven by a combination of factors such as falling transportation costs,advances in information and communication technologies,and the promotion of trade liberalization policies,multinational companies are increasingly disperzing production to different parts of the world.Such global production fragmentation has resulted in an increasing proportion of intermediate goods trade in total trade.In the early stage of reform and opening up,China participated in the international division of labor by adopting the processing trade mode of "low technology,low added value and high energy consumption" in accordance with local conditions,accepted a large number of direct investment from Japan and South Korea,established production,processing and export bases in China,and then exported the final products to European and American countries.In this process,China gradually became the world’s factory.However,due to the existence of statistical defects,China’s international balance of payments overexpanded,but the actual trade gains were not high.Therefore,the US trade deficit and China’s trade surplus are in fact the natural result of the global division of labor.In addition,exchange rate plays an adjustment role in international trade.With the development of global value chain,the proportion of foreign added value included in exports increases,and trade price and marginal cost change synchronously,leading to the decrease of sensitivity of total trade to exchange rate changes and the so-called "exchange rate disconnection" mystery.In the backward linked global value chain participation,if a country’s exports to other countries contain intermediate inputs from a third country,its exports to other countries are affected not only by the bilateral exchange rate between the country and the exporting country,but also by the bilateral exchange rate between the country and the upstream intermediate goods exporting country.If the relative depreciation of the domestic currency,the price of goods exported to other countries will be affected by the marginal cost impact of higher relative prices from upstream intermediate goods.Similarly,in a forward-linked global value chain,if a country’s exports to other countries are re-processed and exported to a third country,its exports to other countries will be affected not only by bilateral exchange rates with other countries,but also by bilateral exchange rates with other countries and a third country.When the exchange rate of another country appreciates,the price of goods from one country to another will be affected by downstream demand shock as exports from other countries become relatively expensive to third countries.Based on the above research ideas,the structure of this paper is divided into four parts,consisting of nine chapters.The first part is the research basis,including chapters 1-4.Chapter 1 is the introduction.The main content includes the research background and significance of the paper,the research ideas and methods followed in the research process,as well as the possible innovations and shortcomings.Chapter 2 is a literature review.Summarizes existing literature on global value chain is put forward and the development of the concept of power,global value chain,as well as its effect on the global value chain division of labor status of research,combing the cause of the current account imbalances,influence,and the current account of the existence of rebalancing challenge,exchange rate and investigates the reason of incomplete transmission,document preparation for research papers.Chapter 3 is the theoretical basis.This paper focuses on the measurement theory of Global Value Chain,current account balance theory and exchange rate adjustment theory to provide theoretical premise and data support for the establishment of the theoretical framework of global value chain’s participation and influence on current account and empirical analysis.Chapter 4 presents typical facts about GVCS ’impact on current accounts.It includes the development status and trend of Global Value Chain,China’s participation in global value chain,and descriptive statistics of global value chain division status.The periodical characteristics and country characteristics of current account imbalance,the evolution of China’s current account,and the possible adverse effects of current account imbalance.Through comparative analysis,it is found that the division of labor of global value chain and the current account of various countries have sustained imbalance,which highly overlaps at the time node.Therefore,two hypotheses are proposed as follows: first,GVC participation will expand the current account balance of a country;Second,GVC’s participation in expanding a country’s current account balance is mainly due to the reduced moderating effect of real effective exchange rate on the current account,that is to say,the participation of GVC weakens the moderating effect of real effective exchange rate on the current account balance.The second part is theoretical analysis and empirical test,including chapters 5-7.Chapter 5 is the theoretical model.Construct a macro structural model including intermediate input trade,and take import and export volumes as a function of import and export prices,bilateral exchange rates,and GVC participation,so as to bring different GVC participation modes,exchange rates,and current accounts into the same theoretical analysis framework.It is concluded that in the forward linked global value chain,import prices have a supply impact on domestic exports through marginal cost effect.In the backward linked Global Value Chain,export prices are affected by the bullwhip effect of the downstream link,which forms a demand impact on domestic exports.Finally,it is concluded that in addition to the Marshall-Lerner condition,global value chain participation is another important path affecting the moderating effect of exchange rate on current account.Chapter 6 is an empirical analysis of the impact of global value chain on current account.By revising the External Balance Assessment model(EBA)of International Monetary Fund and adding the participation index of global value chain,and controlling all kinds of cyclical variables,macroeconomic fundamental variables and policy variables that may affect the current account,it is concluded that global value chain participation can increase the current account balance of a country.In the robustness test,the GVC participation index measured by the WIOD database in the baseline regression was replaced by the ADBMIRO database,and the eurozone sample was removed,the results remained robust.In the aspect of heterogeneity analysis,the different influences of current account deficit countries and surplus countries,developing countries and developed countries,and GVC participation on current account are investigated respectively.Chapter 7 is an empirical test of the exchange rate pass-through mechanism of global value chain’s impact on current account.First,the linear regression method is used to measure exchange rate elasticity and exchange rate pass-through coefficient.Then,the interaction terms of GVC participation,exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate flexibility are incorporated into the regression equation to investigate the moderating effect of real effective exchange rate on current account in the context of Global Value Chain.The third part is the design of real effective exchange rate alternatives,which consists of Chapter 8.Based on the above theoretical and empirical analysis results,GVC participation weakens the moderating effect of real effective exchange rate on current account,and the insufficient moderating effect of real effective exchange rate on current account can be solved by incorporating GVC participation into the calculation of real effective exchange rate.In the traditional real effective exchange rate,the weight matrix of gross trade is adjusted to the weight matrix of value-added trade.At the same time,the heterogeneity of different domestic industries’ participation in GVCS is considered.The fourth part is the conclusion of this paper,which consists of Chapter 9.This paper draws the following conclusions :(1)under the participation of global value chain,whether it is in the way of forward link participation,that is,domestic added value extends to more production links through re-export;The participation mode of backward linkage,that is,import for export,provides opportunities for domestic factor resources to participate in the international division of production.Therefore,whether it is forward linkage or backward linkage,GVC participation can increase the current account balance of a country.(2)With the increase of participation in global value chain,the proportion of intermediate goods trade in the total import and export trade is increasing,so the exchange rate pass-through of import price increases,and the exchange rate pass-through of export price decreases.(3)In the moderating effect of real effective exchange rate on current account balance,in the case of forwardlinked global value chain participation,the downstream links form demand shocks to domestic exports through bullwhip effect,the exchange rate pass-through effect of domestic export prices decreases,and the elasticity of export volume to exchange rate decreases;Backward link of global value chain to participate in the case,every link of the upstream supply shocks are formed by marginal cost effect to their import,domestic currency transfer utility import prices are rising,imports of transfer of flexible exchange rates drop,eventually participate in global value chain by reducing the rate of current account adjustment to improve its current account balance.In view of the above analysis conclusion,promote the export of Chinese status in global value chain division of stable,improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,reform Suggestions,such as external sector statistics accounting and its implications for the global value chain to participate in the monetary policy effect,the real effective exchange rate of the influence of the global value chain are denominated in currency,as well as the industry level problem such as the calculation of real effective exchange rate,Further research directions are proposed.Possible innovations of this paper include :(1)incorporating GVC participation into the macro analysis framework.This paper will contact intermediates downstream products into the general equilibrium model of the equilibrium price,on the basis of general into exports as a function of price,exchange rate,and participate in global value chain,built up prior to contact the global value chain to participate in,and exports to contact after engaging in global value chain and a function of imports,Finally,through the current account balance is equal to the difference of total imports and exports,namely net exports,the different participation modes,exchange rates and current accounts of GVCS are brought into the same theoretical analysis framework.(2)Study current account imbalance and incomplete exchange rate pass-through from the perspective of global value chain.Although the current account and capital account in the balance of payments relations belong to the two sides of the same coin,but from the capital account,especially the perspective of capital flows to explain global imbalances of the United States for the dollar as an international currency is more convincing,especially to explain as an international currency,the dollar how to make the United States as the world’s largest deficit;But it is less convincing for Germany,Japan and manufacturing-oriented countries such as China.At the same time,it is noted that a significant common feature of these manufacturing-oriented countries is their deep participation in the global division of labor,hence the existence of an explanation of international trade on current account imbalances,namely global value chains.In addition,both about the document of exchange rate transmission for exchange rate drops transfer effect tend to associate it with the explanation of energy products in associated fall in the proportion of total imports,and monetary integration,such as the establishment of the euro zone,or that the exchange rate transmission rate decline is due to increased competition in international trade,in this paper,the effect of exchange rate transmission down the interpretation of the global value chain are given.Note the expenditure conversion effect of exchange rates on the current account,thus linking GVCS,exchange rate pass-through,and the current account.(3)Revise IMF’s external balance assessment model in the aspect of empirical analysis.The IMF’s external balance evaluation model(EBA)is the analysis of current account imbalances is the most mature model,the model would be likely to affect the current account of the cyclical factors,policy factors,as well as macroeconomic fundamentals are included in the empirical model,however,no rapid development in recent years include the global value chain,Therefore,in the standard external balance assessment model,this paper brings forward and backward linked GVCS into the model framework respectively,and empirically analyzes the impact of different participation modes of GVCS on the current account balance.(4)Calculate the real effective exchange rate of GVCS based on value-added trade.The traditional real effective exchange rate index is mainly calculated by the International Monetary Fund(IMF)and the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)and released regularly,which is used to measure the international competitiveness of a country or region’s export products.In terms of trade weight,the index simply calculates the total trade weight,In other words,the import and export volume of a certain country accounts for the total import and export volume of the country as the weight,thus ignoring the trade of intermediate inputs included in the total value trade,namely the participation in global value chain trade.With the increasing proportion of intermediate input trade in total trade,the traditional real effective exchange rate will be less accurate in assessing the international competitiveness of a country’s export products.There is a general tendency of overestimation for backward countries participating in GVCS,and an underestimation for forward countries participating in GVCS.Therefore,this article will be added value of a country’s export products include home the country’s total exports increase proportion of weight as a trade,which are used to contact the global value chain to participate in the way for a higher weight,and for future contact to participate in the global value chain of countries give a lower weight,improve the traditional real effective exchange rate of current account adjustment malfunction.更多还原